Question Chance of Arrival in Unit Reinforcement

shahadi · #1 December 11th, 2018, 12:38 PM

Please explain chance of arrival in unit reinforcement. Is the chance of arrival (10…100) applied only to the turn, or could the unit appear at a later turn? My expectation is the chance of arrival only applies to the indicated turn.

zovs66 · #2 December 11th, 2018, 12:55 PM

It's in the manual, but if you set it to arrive on turn 2 (or whatever) and then set it to say 75% then on turn 2 it will arrive on a roll less then 75%, and if it does not make the roll, it will check on turn 3, rinse, repeat and so on.

zovs66 · #3 December 11th, 2018, 12:57 PM

Per the manual:

Set reinforcement turn for this unit, at the current hex. Set reinforcement chance, this is a percentage chance of arrival per turn, NOT a one shot chance. Therefore a reinforcement with a 10 per cent chance which does not arrive on the due turn will test again on each subsequent turn after its due turn as and until it makes the chance roll or the game ends, whichever comes first.

shahadi · #4 December 11th, 2018, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zovs66

It's in the manual, but if you set it to arrive on turn 2 (or whatever) and then set it to say 75% then on turn 2 it will arrive on a roll less then 75%, and if it does not make the roll, it will check on turn 3, rinse, repeat and so on.

Thanks for the reference and your answer.

Well, back to the drawing board. The point of this exercise is to make a player respond to different situations each time he or she (shuiir) plays a scenario, rather than a static scenario, I am playing with making them dynamic.

zovs66 · #5 December 11th, 2018, 02:04 PM

Well to me the game as is, is dynamic, if you set it to arrive on turn 2 at 20% there is an 80% chance it won't arrive on turns 2-27, etc. If your thinking of making something more like if player 1 takes object 3 then trigger player 2 (or 1) unit X to arrive at location x,x at xx% then yeah that is not going to happen.

But I would say that the default way is more than sufficient and flexible as is.

Imp · #6 December 11th, 2018, 09:44 PM

Rough guide the lower the chance the larger the range.
Rough guess
20% chance > by turn 3 a bit over 50% chance it will turn up.
10% increases the range dramatically around 27% chance of turning up on turn 3.
Turn 6 will be around 50% chance of turning up.
So 10% probably gives a good likelihood of turning up between turns 5-9.
You could do the maths if want accurate chances.

zovs66 · #7 December 12th, 2018, 05:43 AM

John, not sure where your rough guess and maths come from, but it pretty clear i the manual how this works (unless I am missing something).

Quote:

Set reinforcement turn for this unit, at the current hex. Set reinforcement chance, this is a percentage chance of arrival per turn, NOT a one shot chance. Therefore a reinforcement with a 10 per cent chance which does not arrive on the due turn will test again on each subsequent turn after its due turn as and until it makes the chance roll or the game ends, whichever comes first.

geoff · #8 December 12th, 2018, 06:49 AM

This is probability theory. If there's a 10% chance of the reinforcement arriving, then in theory after five turns there is a 50% chance that the reinforcement will have arrived at some point in turns 1 through 5, although the chance of it arriving on any specific turn is still 10%.

zovs66 · #9 December 12th, 2018, 08:14 AM

Thanks for clarifying that geoff.

Imp · #10 December 12th, 2018, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zovs66

John, not sure where your rough guess and maths come from, but it pretty clear i the manual how this works (unless I am missing something).

Quote:

Set reinforcement turn for this unit, at the current hex. Set reinforcement chance, this is a percentage chance of arrival per turn, NOT a one shot chance. Therefore a reinforcement with a 10 per cent chance which does not arrive on the due turn will test again on each subsequent turn after its due turn as and until it makes the chance roll or the game ends, whichever comes first.

It is probability its not as simple as Geoff quotes 5 tries at 10% does not give 50%, wish it did I would place loads of bets then.
Roulette bet on black / red 50% chance second try would be 100% I cannot lose unless 0 comes up.

Chances of it turning up each individual turn remains the same at 20% but the probability that will occur increases with each turn is what I am saying.

The chance for it to appear on a certain turn has to take into account the chances it failed to appear on the previous turns.
At 10% Turn 2 only has a 90% chance of happening because 10% of the time it will appear on turn 1 etc etc.

Because of this each turn the probability of it turning up increases not doing the maths but at 20% the chances of it not turning up by turn 10 is remote, by turn 27 you probably have more chance of getting hit by a car.
That's 26 times it failed to turn up with a 1 in 5 (20%) chance every turn. Law of averages says it should have appeared over 5 times by then.