Spies and unrest

[thejeff]

I don't buy it. I'll check the numbers again tonight, but this was 4 spies (+20 Stealth) with 150 unrest. The odds were against even one getting caught. All 4 in a single turn is really pushing the odds. It happened once before in the same game, and those were the only times any of my spies were caught there.


And they did produce 4 separate battles.

[Meglobob]

thejeff said:
And they did produce 4 separate battles.

This confirms each one was detected seperatly.

I believe patrolling creates 2 seperate checks, 1 to reduce unrest and another to detect stealth units. High unrest adds hugely however to avoid detection, but as I have said before there are so many random rolls in Dom3, you are bound to get extemely unlucky every now and again.

Abit like I fumbled with a -700+ fumble that time in Middle-Earth...

[mivayan]

thejeff said:
The second time I already had roughly 150 unrest there. He had the standard capital 25 PD and judging from the troops that attacked my poor spies another 60 or so patrolling. With the penalty from unrest his chances should have been slim, but he caught all 4 spies.

Is the roll only made once for patrolling, so if he got a good open-ended roll all stealthy units are likely to be caught?

Perhaps the ai only patrolls once now and then.

Manuals formula for stealth strength: 40 + 20 (spy's stealth bonus) = 60
Destealth strength: 60 (Sum of destealth strength of patrollers, about 60 guys, probably without bonuses or fly) - 50 (unrest /2, capped at unrest100) + 16 (for province defence of 25, assuming the ai never raised it) = 35.

The spy is found if 35 + 2d25 (open ended) > 60 + 2d25 (open ended)

Catching all four at once is a bit lucky but nowhere near requiring the open-ended part of the die rolls.

[Ironhawk]

How are you getting 2d25? I thought all dominions randomness rolls were 2d6 OE.

[mivayan]

Ironhawk said:
How are you getting 2d25? I thought all dominions randomness rolls were 2d6 OE.

page 67 in manual, 3/4 down.

[thejeff]

A bit lucky doesn't describe it.

If the numbers I've been playing with are right, it's about a 6% chance of making that roll.

Which is a 0.0013% chance of getting 4 in row.
Possible, technically.

Which is why I suspect only a single roll is made for the patrollers, which is then compared against a roll for each stealthy commander. Since one really good patrol roll could beat all the stealth rolls, it would be much more possible.
Simulating that comes out to around 0.3% for catching all four.