Order vs. Luck in End Game

[Cainehill]

Originally posted by Graeme Dice:

quote:

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Originally posted by tinkthank:
It comes as a surprise to me that a huge empire with many provinces does not have more random events than a 1-province fledgling empire.

It does. The frequency increases, but there is a maximum of three events per turn.

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Which in essence means that a huge empire with high disorder + Luck / Misfortune won't have more events than a fairly small empire with the same scales.

[Norfleet]

Originally posted by Stormbinder:
Make sense, I had the feeling that it max limit is about 3 indeed. Do you know at what size of dominion this limit is typically reached? (on normal random events settings)

On common random events, the 3 event limit is generally reached around the time you have about 10 provinces.

[Graeme Dice]

Originally posted by Norfleet:
On common random events, the 3 event limit is generally reached around the time you have about 10 provinces.

This is most certainly not true unless you've chosen turmoil 3 and an extreme luck scale. Even then, it's a major exaggeration. With a combination of the order and luck scales that results in a net-zero modifier to event frequency, you will probably only see an event once every two or three turns on common event frequency.

[Stormbinder]

Originally posted by Norfleet:

quote:

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Originally posted by Stormbinder:
Make sense, I had the feeling that it max limit is about 3 indeed. Do you know at what size of dominion this limit is typically reached? (on normal random events settings)

On common random events, the 3 event limit is generally reached around the time you have about 10 provinces.

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Hmmm, I don't think so. I am playing MP game right now with standard random events settings, have empire of 25+ provinces, and more often than not I have less than 3 random events per turn. 10 provinces definetly sounds too few to me. Anybody else can comment on this?

[ May 18, 2004, 20:46: Message edited by: Stormbinder ]

[Molog]

Perhaps there could be some more lucky events you only get with luck 2 or 3.

A new event giving a magical trinket.

[Cainehill]

Originally posted by Graeme Dice:

quote:

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Originally posted by Norfleet:
On common random events, the 3 event limit is generally reached around the time you have about 10 provinces.

This is most certainly not true unless you've chosen turmoil 3 and an extreme luck scale. Even then, it's a major exaggeration. With a combination of the order and luck scales that results in a net-zero modifier to event frequency, you will probably only see an event once every two or three turns on common event frequency.

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"A net-zero modifier to event frequency" - I suspect this means you take Order most of the time, possibly getting the Order scale for "free" via Misfortune.

If so, this doesn't make you the best judge of how often small, Turmoil or Luck/Misfortune tilted nations hit the 3 event mark. Nowadays I tend to use at least Luck-1; with Turmoil I tend to go higher. For instance - turmoil 3, luck 2 (Carrion Woods) - with just 3 provinces, I was already hitting 3 events quite often. (I don't want to give a ration, because I wasn't paying close attention, but definately more than 1/10th of the time, possibly significantly more often.)

Personally, I shudder at the thought of going with a high turmoil, high Misfortune setup again, even
with the 3 event cap. But frankly, Turmoil / Luck (quite common with, mmm, 2 of Pangaea's themes, at least one of T'ien C'hi's, and possibly Ermor and some others) gets the screw, while I suspect Order3/Misfortune3 gets a big break in the end game.

This is both because of the 3 event limit, quite often seen even in the early game, and also because Luck-3 doesn't keep you from having 40% of your capitol's population wiped out on turn 3, or other such "lucky" catastrophes.

[Graeme Dice]

Originally posted by Cainehill:
"A net-zero modifier to event frequency" - I suspect this means you take Order most of the time, possibly getting the Order scale for "free" via Misfortune.

In the games I'm currently playing, the scales are order 3/misfortune 3, turmoil 3/luck 3, and turmoil 3/luck 3. I personally almost never start games with more than misfortune 2.

If so, this doesn't make you the best judge of how often small, Turmoil or Luck/Misfortune tilted nations hit the 3 event mark.

There is a very large difference between having 3 events every few turns and having 3 events every single turn. The first can happen on a fairly regular basis with even a small nation. The second requires much more than 10 provinces before it will occur.

[Cainehill]

Originally posted by Schmoe:
There's definitely a disparity between Order and Luck in the endgame, but I don't think people are considering the disparity in the beginning of the game.

On turn 2, a +500 gp event can have a huge impact on how quickly your nation gets started, whereas the benefit of +3 Order is not that great.

On turn 2, your positive luck scale turning a random event from a lost temple to a handful of gems makes a huge impact.

The point is that Luck seems to have a larger impact on the beginning of the game, which in turn can help your nation get started faster, which has a trickle-down effect throughout the rest of the game.

Unfortunately, even with Luck-3, you _still_ lose your temple on turn 2, have a tidal wave wipe out 40% population in your only big province, etc. If luck did something to eliminate the really bad events at least for the first 10 turns, I might agree with you.