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December 27th, 2003, 11:37 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee
Since Excel can't handle 1000 events in the calculations, I have settled for something less ambitious.
I calculated the probability for each of the results for the 100 dice rolls for David and Claude.
The numbers are cumulative, so for example the first entry means that there's a 80% chance of getting 14 or more 6's out of 100 dice rolls.
code:
David Probability Odds Claude Probability Odds
14 0.7999947521 1 in 1.25 34 0.0000190716 1 in 52434
12 0.9222807788 1 in 1.1 32 0.0001238040 1 in 8077
17 0.5058410243 1 in 2.0 35 0.0000070251 1 in 142347
20 0.2197498431 1 in 4.6 37 0.0000008412 1 in 1188738
17 0.5058410243 1 in 2.0 28 0.0031013887 1 in 322
16 0.6123424483 1 in 1.6 31 0.0002957849 1 in 3381
21 0.1518878479 1 in 6.6 36 0.0000024818 1 in 402926
32 0.0001238040 1 in 8077 27 0.0062087189 1 in 161
18 0.4005925583 1 in 2.5 33 0.0000496373 1 in 20146
15 0.7125790826 1 in 1.4 33 0.0000496373 1 in 20146
From this, it appears that what Claude did is very, very, improbable! |
December 27th, 2003, 11:39 PM
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BANNED USER
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Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Near Boston, MA, USA
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Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee
I had a friend who played miniatures who said:
"I rather be lucky than good any day"
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December 27th, 2003, 11:49 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee
Claude should play SE4. He'll beat your fleet of 50 dreadnaughts using 3 escorts armed with DUC's.  |
December 28th, 2003, 04:01 AM
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General
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Join Date: May 2002
Location: Canada
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Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee
I just think my friend Claude's karma is dice based while mine is pixel based. This would explain why I'm good at computers and he is good at dice.
with this anaolgy, what kind of karma would you all say you have? (you must all be good at something. )
Cheers!  |
December 28th, 2003, 07:59 PM
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Lieutenant Colonel
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Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee
I was incredibly lucky at Backgammon and Yahtzee until they made me use the cups.
I'm not sure just how my hands could make such a difference....
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December 29th, 2003, 04:29 PM
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Shrapnel Fanatic
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Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee
Quote:
I was incredibly lucky at Backgammon and Yahtzee until they made me use the cups.
I'm not sure just how my hands could make such a difference....
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it's possible your subconcious was choosing which side would come up. the subconcious is possibly capable of the calculations.
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December 30th, 2003, 02:08 AM
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General
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Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee
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