winMBT low percentile hits - Page 2

Starmyth · #11 July 15th, 2005, 04:20 PM

Is Kevin really offering to do a statistical analysis for us?

PlasmaKrab · #12 July 15th, 2005, 04:33 PM

You can do one yourself, should be no big deal, only some work...

Create a test unit with lotsa shots, quite uneffective weapon, note the accuracy value, unit viz, stabilisator, .
Create a map on which you put several of these with standardized M/E ratings, face them with many heavily-armored unarmed target units, which you place at different ranges.

Then have a bout of firing and note for each shot the given PK and if it hit or not.

When you have the data, sort by probability and look at what you get. Again and again

Yeah, that is tiresome, and I guess you can get a automated way to do it...

Anyway I don't think you will come up with anything surprising, but if you have 50 hours to spend...

Starmyth · #13 July 15th, 2005, 04:40 PM

Maybe someday. If I get really really bored.

loktarr · #14 July 15th, 2005, 05:45 PM

In order to avoid you some boring and long experiments, I'll give some useful informations:
1) Given percentiles are main weapon ones -> try to kill a drone with T-62 main gun, 1-3% seems like elite gunner in your T-62, with machingun it's pretty better....
2)The given percentile depends only on units. Explanation: take two M1A1 one with a 20 experience the other with 120. at the same distance of each deploy a T-62. Given percentile should be the same... Try the fire and you will see. Experience is only tested after you decided to fire at the unit, not before...
if that's true, it will explain everything, but it may have changed between SPMBT 3.01 and WinMBT...

kevin · #15 July 16th, 2005, 01:00 AM

Starmyth,

noooooooo. sorry I don't have the time for that. As usual my friends loktarr and plasmakrab seem to be 'over engineering' a test.

You don't need to set up special scenarios.

Set up an excel sheet, or a scratch piece of paper. Set up 100 columns and then divide each of those into a fired / hit column (total of 200.) The next time you play SP, keep track of the estimated % and place a tick mark mark in the correct fired column. If it hits, put a mark in the hit column. After 100 fired ticks, you ought to have an idea if SP is estimating coreect hit %'s.

nosrac · #16 July 16th, 2005, 01:10 AM

how about an "regular" egyptian squad droppin israeli paras at 400m b/c they moved 1 hex(50 m)!!!!!!
chickens with no heads i guess. movement penalty is too harsh and unrealistic. small arms fire= a bunch of snipers. too much emphasis on "kills" and not enough on supression.

DRG · #17 July 16th, 2005, 01:26 AM

Quote:

nosrac said:
how about an "regular" egyptian squad droppin israeli paras at 400m b/c they moved 1 hex(50 m)!!!!!!
chickens with no heads i guess. movement penalty is too harsh and unrealistic. small arms fire= a bunch of snipers. too much emphasis on "kills" and not enough on supression.

Sometimes I REALLY wonder if I'm playing the same game as some of you people. The "movement penalty" is NOT "too harsh" and small arms fire does not equal "a bunch of snipers". If you move against an enemy force that is unsurpressed expect to take casualties if you are moving in the open in the desert. Surpression IS the key and if you don't do it expect casualties when moving in the open even if it is only one hex and your opponent is a ""regular" egyptian squad" What....?? a "regular" egyptian squad isn't supposed to be able to hit Isreali paras?

Don

nosrac · #18 July 16th, 2005, 02:06 AM

imho, at 400m in battlefield conditions. pretty tough. if a squad moves 1 hex and is truly tactical(tactical...using cover, keeping low...crawling???) at 400m even in open desert i find it hard to believe that at this distance anyone except a sniper could consistantly score kills(supression yes)
400m...4 football fields!!!long way!

btw...not to nitpick game. i absolutly love it. thanks for everything yall have done. truly remarkable.

Arralen · #19 July 16th, 2005, 03:25 AM

Uuuooh ... hitting someone ducking along in 400m with an AK-47 ?!
Do they use original Sowjet guns with scopes and match ammo?

"Universally accepted" effective range of the AK-47 is 300m !
( US Army Field Manual 100-2-3 - The Soviet Army; Troops Organisation and Equipment published in June 1991.)

PlasmaKrab · #20 July 16th, 2005, 04:59 AM

Sorry Kevin, I wasn't meaning that you were doing it, I don't even knkow where Starmyth found the info, so Iwasn't sure you wouldn't either...

Either case I was just indicating that he could do it himself, same way as you explained, only with better standardisation... Not necessarily useful though.

But if you want to have statistically useful results, you ought to allow for many shots for each PK %. One each won't do.