What if...

[Rodwonder]

Here is some fodder for what if battles or campaigns. Hopefully this will stay as wargames... http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/03/...AEditors+Picks

[Double_Deuce]

There's been a lot of talk of wargaming a Russia vs Sweden conflict lately since they are not part of NATO and would not invoke the Article 5 commitment. I know they work closely with NATO but iirc are not covered under the treaty itself.

[Oche]

Stock scenarios#149, 150, 173, 174 and 175 by Ulf Lundstrom are cold war what if scenarios involving Soviet Union vs Sweden, although set 25 years before than the would be scenarios of timeline suggested by op, those prove that they can be very well designed if attention to detail is kept in mind as always with scenario design

[jivemi]

It was rather sobering to read that Germany now has only 250 serviceable MBTs and that the US has only 2 combat brigades in Europe. Seems like Russia could overrun the Baltics or Ukraine anytime it chooses.

[RecruitMonty]

Hmm... . As much as I enjoy yesterday's left-overs, I think re-heating the Cold War - something the liberal media etc have tried to do since 2012 or thereabouts - is a bit desperate to say the least.

If the Russians are smart - and I do believe their leaders are - they will leave the West - especially Western Europe - to its own devices - even if provoked.

We've screwed ourselves over enough - without any help from abroad - and it doesn't look like we'll be providing any leadership in the short term to deal with the problems we are facing in anything like "good time".

Hell, it is far more likely that large swathes of Europe will descend into a "Yugoslav" scenario long before the first Russian tanks start rolling westwards.

[Suhiir]

I don't think ethnic tensions in most of Europe are near as high as they were in Yugoslavia. And keep in mind what happened between Quebec and the rest of Canada. There will ALWAYS be a few hotheads but most people don't think the situation is bad enough to start shooting at each other about.

[IronDuke99]

The EU is in a very weak position these days: The Euro zone is a total disaster and immigration policy (re economic migrants, rather than genuine refugees) a total mess up. Border policy a total mess. UK certainly should leave it, many other nations -including even France- now see its huge draw backs.

So sure EU might well break up (and not before time if you ask me).

The 'new cold war' is merely traditional Russian policy coming back again. I am not at all sure it is vital to western Europe to defend the Baltic States, even if -a very big if indeed- it is possible.

Meantime, aside from warfare resulting from who has the best invisible friend in the sky (sigh, in the 21st Century) China remains the real threat to the West, very heavily involved in Africa, rich, autocratic, expansionist, and building up her Navy with Aircraft Carriers, etc.

If European nations can defend their borders against a vast mass of mostly purely economic migrants, China, for my money remains the longer term and more serious threat...

[Suhiir]

China is certainly a regional threat but it has quite a way to go before becoming a world threat (other then nuclear).
You don't build a fleet overnight, and you certainly don't get the training and experience needed to be anything but a 3rd rate one regardless of how technologically advanced your ships are in anything less then 15-20 years after you have enough ships built.
I don't care how big and advanced their army is if they can't get it anywhere and supply it once it's there it's not a major world threat.

[DRG]

Logistics IS the key to everything related to military operations

[RecruitMonty]

Originally Posted by Suhiir

China is certainly a regional threat but it has quite a way to go before becoming a world threat (other then nuclear).
You don't build a fleet overnight, and you certainly don't get the training and experience needed to be anything but a 3rd rate one regardless of how technologically advanced your ships are in anything less then 15-20 years after you have enough ships built.
I don't care how big and advanced their army is if they can't get it anywhere and supply it once it's there it's not a major world threat.

Operating, of course, on the principal that China's competitors at the very least maintain their current standards / readiness throughout this 20-30 year period.

If the over-all quality of Western Navies deteriorates in the mean time then the experience gap becomes much smaller and is therefore more readily obtainable within a shorter time period.

Navies are expensive to run at the best of times. Sailors don't stay in the service nearly as long as they once used to either and I'm pretty sure that demographic shifts will play more of a role regarding over-all recruit quality/performance as time goes by in the West as well.