Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[shahadi]

The Russians may not roll the dice on a military incursion into the Baltics, however, that does not mean it is not beneficial to wargame that scenario. Having said that, I do believe Russia does not want NATO right up to its borders. And, it has been strongly suggested that the US may have broken her word when she advocated the admittance of the Baltic States to NATO.

“…in Moscow on Feb. 9, then-Secretary of State James Baker suggested that in exchange for cooperation on Germany, U.S. could make ‘iron-clad guarantees’ that NATO would not expand ‘one inch eastward’. Less than a week later, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to begin reunification talks. No formal deal was struck, but from all the evidence, the quid pro quo was clear: Gorbachev acceded to Germany’s western alignment and the U.S. would limit NATO’s expansion.” (Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Los Angeles Times, May 30, 2016: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...nap-story.html)

Now, we may begin to understand how Russia may feel aggrieved in a way that Putin may find it imperative to roll back NATO off of Russian borders.

Given the recent modus operandi of overthrowing governments from the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ in Tunisia, to Egypt, to Syrian demonstrations in Homs at a central square, to the failed attempt in Turkey during the Gezi park demonstrations in 2013, to the Georgian demonstrations, to the annexation of Crimea, all began with activists agitating for ‘human rights’ against the government.

I would argue, the most plausible course of Russian action would be a similar sort of indirect action by directing pro-Russian groups in Estonia and Latvia to stir up the pot and agitate those governments for ‘human rights’. I have not read of significant Russian speakers in Lithuania, so this type of action would not complete taking back the Baltics, therefore, in Lithuania, a military action maybe most plausible.

Again, it is the job of analyst to wargame all sorts of scenarios.

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[DRG]

Originally Posted by shahadi

The Russians may not roll the dice on a military incursion into the Baltics, however, that does not mean it is not beneficial to wargame that scenario. Having said that, I do believe Russia does not want NATO right up to its borders.
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......... anymore than the US would be happy with a Russian brigade on the Mexican border ( though that may put a damper on the cartels... but I digress ).

What is important to remember ( besides this is a GAME forum and many of these posts lately are beginning to stray a bit ) is that unlike the "west" in general..N.American in particular.....the Russians actually REMEMBER their history and react according to it. It's easy to say the Russians have nothing to fear re: a militarily aggressive NATO but every time NATO expands and signs on a state that was once in the sphere of the Warsaw pact that is seen as an aggressive action because IT IS..( passive-aggressive)

Stalin was more than a little surprised on June 22 1941 but he shouldn't have been. That lesson has been learned a very hard way

Don

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

At the risk of getting too political why would an anti immigration party in Sweden (and I presume it is anti Islamic immigration) be pro Putin and Russia?

Shared national-conservative views – along with being anti-EU and NATO skeptical...

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

Surely Putin's Russia is not the biggest threat to Sweden right now?

When it comes to hybrid warfare/conventional military capability Russia is viewed as the only potential aggressor. I think that goes for the anti-immigration party as well. Sweden does not expect to be invaded by Finland, NATO (not even Denmark ) or battalions of ISIS or Taliban Fighters...

Personally I think there are plenty of what-if scenarios involving Russia than could be made – and they wouldn't be all that far fetched.

[Airborne Rifles]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Personally I think there are plenty of what-if scenarios involving Russia than could be made – and they wouldn't be all that far fetched.

I agree. Lots of scenario options for both sides. Grant1pa's and SaS TrooP's are great. I'm really interested in the possibilities of a NATO counteroffensive into to wither liberate the occupied Baltics of seize Kaliningrad to act as a bargaining chip to get the Baltics back. I think both of these are not at all beyonf the realm of possibility.

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by wulfir

Shared national-conservative views – along with being anti-EU and NATO skeptical...

When it comes to hybrid warfare/conventional military capability Russia is viewed as the only potential aggressor. I think that goes for the anti-immigration party as well. Sweden does not expect to be invaded by Finland, NATO (not even Denmark ) or battalions of ISIS or Taliban Fighters...

Personally I think there are plenty of what-if scenarios involving Russia than could be made – and they wouldn't be all that far fetched.

With regard to EU right wing parties, those of Sweden as well, even as we may describe them as anti-immigration, what we, those living in America are beginning to realize is that Russia is acting to destabilize the republic and this view is gaining appreciation when we look across the Atlantic at France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. That EU right wing groups share an animus for the EU and they do agitate against their government policy that rocks the fundamental notion of a democracy. It could very well be a page from the Cold War novels of John le Carre (a Brit no doubt) to weaken the EU and NATO.

So, it may not be that the EU right wing is pro Russian but rather they are handled by Russian operatives.

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[IronDuke99]

Originally Posted by shahadi

With regard to EU right wing parties, those of Sweden as well, even as we may describe them as anti-immigration, what we, those living in America are beginning to realize is that Russia is acting to destabilize the republic and this view is gaining appreciation when we look across the Atlantic at France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. That EU right wing groups share an animus for the EU and they do agitate against their government policy that rocks the fundamental notion of a democracy. It could very well be a page from the Cold War novels of John le Carre (a Brit no doubt) to weaken the EU and NATO.

So, it may not be that the EU right wing is pro Russian but rather they are handled by Russian operatives.

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I hope you will forgive me for saying this is really utter nonsense. Even more so than the idea that most of the huge mass of millions of Islamic economic migrants in Europe these days are supporters of the Islamic State, although, of course, some certainly are.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

I hope you will forgive me for saying this is really utter nonsense.

I totally agree with IronDukes comment and I have already dropped subtle hints that threads like this are straying away from the game into politics. If you want to test reaction to paranoid conspiracy theories GO SOMEWHERE ELSE

....otherwise, if it continues it WILL end

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by DRG

I totally agree with IronDukes comment and I have already dropped subtle hints that threads like this are straying away from the game into politics. If you want to test reaction to paranoid conspiracy theories GO SOMEWHERE ELSE

....otherwise, if it continues it WILL end

I am not testing conspiracy theories, paranoid or otherwise. The intent of the post was to lay the foundation for a scenario where Russia takes in-direct military action in the Baltic countries as a result of activities to shape or influence opinion. It is not, most definitely not, a conspiracy theory. Simply read reputable journals and news organizations and you will come away with a different conclusion than the opinion expressed that Russia is actively engaged in activities to weaken the EU and NATO with influence operations by spies and cyber activities is a conspiracy theory.

In Newsweek, we have the following report,"...As in other European countries, radical groups in Lithuania often side with Russia, and Russia has often sided with environmental groups in Latvia and beyond in opposing fracking. “Not every radical group in Lithuania is connected to Russian intelligence services, but the Russians are taking advantage of them..." Source:http://www.newsweek.com/2014/12/19/s...ar-290686.html

In the UK's Telegraph we find the following, "...A dossier of “Russian influence activity” seen by The Sunday Telegraph identified Russian influence operations running in France, the Netherlands, Hungary as well as Austria and the Czech Republic, which has been identified by Russian agents as an entry-point into the Schengen free movement zone."
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ing-in-EU.html

In the US Time magazine we have a report on Russian influence operations in Latvia and Estonia, reading as follows, "They say he has established government-controlled humanitarian front organizations in their capitals, infiltrated their security services and energy industry companies, instigated nationalist riots and launched cyber attacks. The goal, says the Estonian Ambassador to the U.S., Marina Kaljurand, is 'to restore in one form or another the power of the Russian Federation on the lands where Russian people live.'" Source http://time.com/90752/inside-putins-...-spy-campaign/

Again, let me say, that I in no way peddle idle gossip or conspiracies. The talk here of politics, at least in this thread, as well as in others on the forum, as far as I understand, are intended to give background or context for a scenario.

Having said that, let me say, that I am working on producing how an Estonian or Latvian commander may order his forces to deter a massive armor assault. So, this thread may deal with the shape of a Russian invasion and alternately, possible Baltic states responses, in a way that designers may develop scenarios gaming those responses.

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[dmnt]

Originally Posted by Grant1pa

I've been using the map generator: http://www.venhola.com/maps/

I've learned some other tricks of the trade in using the program such as obtaining the correct coordinates through google maps, screen printing the Vehnola map for reference later, and most importantly, writing down the coordinates you finally select ahead of time so as to re-draw the map at a later date. There are more.

Thanks for the feedback! There's this L-button on top right corner that gives you the direct URL to the coordinates you picked. You can then bookmark that URL (open it in new tab for example and then bookmark) so you can always come back to the map later on. Current zoom and position aren't saved, though.

[Airborne Rifles]

Was thinking about this issue the other day, and an idea for a series of scenarios or a campaign popped into my mind. Here's what I was thinking:

Russia has invaded and occupied the Baltic States and is fortifying their gains. NATO is mobilizing in Poland to both prevent further aggression and to lay the groundwork for a counteroffensive into the Baltics and Kaliningrad. The threat of nuclear escalation has been stymied by unequivocal statements by the US, UK, and France that NATO will respond in kind of Russia crosses that threshold. So now what remains is for NATO to launch their difficult effort to reclaim its member states.

Except there may be another option. The NATO alliance manages to convince a nervous Finland to join the war against Russian aggression. The US, supported by several other NATO members, rapidly deploys a sizable force to Finland in order to launch an offensive towards St. Petersburg. If NATO forces can occupy Russia's second largest city, they will have a powerful bargaining chip to lay on the table to convince Russia to withdraw from the Baltics.

I think this would be a very interesting basis for a series of scenarios, with NATO on the offensive for a change. I might try to tackle this when life slows down. Thoughts?