Scenario: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

[wulfir]

Anyways, a couple of years ago I started building a German/NATO vs Russia campaign set in southern Estonia.

The idea was a that the player would command a mixed battle group of somewhat unready NATO forces during the initial stages of a Russkie invasion...

I experimented with adding an element from a different OOB into the fixed German core force - here an attached Dutch mech inf coy - I did not intend for the player to be able to refit destroyed units and that the campaign would only last 5-6 battles...

Didn't really turn out that great. Stopped working on it halfway through. Buuut, if anyone wants to kill some time, here it is..., the Russians won't be all that problematic in this setup...

[Imp]

I have a feeling Russia has changed, to me it looks like they using the current situation as a testbed for both improving tactics & checking if weapon systems perform in combat as well as they did on the range. That's my take on why they are making limited use of high end expensive stuff just to check it performs as expected.
Russia took on board Western thinking of quality over quantity a while back & are mow seeing just how this works & trying to refine it, she is not the same animal she used to be.

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by Aeraaa

It was amazing in practise as well...when it was actually performed and not when Soviets were doing knee-jerk reactions to stop the Germans onslaught in the early years.

The massive initial Soviet losses in WWII were in part due to their inability to wage mobile war vs the Germans and lack of training (some training was done on the battlefield itself resulting in errors and losses). While they are later able to hold the overall initiative their offensives followed a set piece pattern and was for the most part uninspired at the tactical level.

Finland summer 1944 - the initial Soviet attack is delivered with such force and numbers that they need not care much about possible Finnish countermeassures and although being able to advance some they are unable to fully break the Finnish resistance - their offensive fails. The last Soviet effort against Finland (Illomantsi) ends in a clear Soviet defeat...

[IronDuke99]

Bear in mind a lot of good Russian offices died in the revolution or left the Soviet Service. Then in the 1930's the vile Stalin had a great many leading soldiers executed. None of which did the Soviet performance much good in the earlier part of World War Two, against a German Army with both high training, experience and morale...

[shahadi]

I wonder what form a Russian invasion would take. A full scale attack or a limited engagement akin to what we've witnessed in the Ukraine. There a good number of Russian speakers in the Baltic states, and organizations that could antagonize those governments then as a pretense Russia might invade on a limited scale to protect those Russian's rights.

Either way, what would be the response of Sweden and Finland, two countries not a part of NATO?

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[IronDuke99]

Originally Posted by shahadi

I wonder what form a Russian invasion would take. A full scale attack or a limited engagement akin to what we've witnessed in the Ukraine. There a good number of Russian speakers in the Baltic states, and organizations that could antagonize those governments then as a pretense Russia might invade on a limited scale to protect those Russian's rights.

Either way, what would be the response of Sweden and Finland, two countries not a part of NATO?

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I would be amazed, to put it mildly, if Sweden or Finland did a thing beyond some totally pointless verbal protest at the UN.

[Suhiir]

Half of NATO would probably lodge pointless verbal protests ...

[IronDuke99]

Originally Posted by Suhiir

Half of NATO would probably lodge pointless verbal protests ...

100% Truth, sadly.

[Airborne Rifles]

I actually think NATO would respond strongly, though it would take time. Right now the Russians can overrun the Baltic States, though that is more difficult now with the heavy multi-national battalions rotating through those three countries, and a US armored BCT in Poland. I would think a war between Russia and NATO would unfold something like this:

-Surprise Russian push simultaneously into the three Baltic States in conjunction with "hybrid warfare" supplied by Russian minorities in those countries. The Russians overwhelm the Baltic militaries as well as the rotating NATO forces, though the fight is bloody.

-Next the Russians pause and dig in. They really don't have the capacity to go any further.

-Meanwhile, NATO gathers strength (mostly American, but also German, British, French, etc) in Poland for a counterattack while the air forces gain air superiority, with difficulty. This is the most dangerous point, because the Russians, knowing they can't win if they give NATO time to build up a powerful counteroffensive, will likely execute their strategy of "escalate to de-escalate," meaning they would launch a limited nuclear strike at some military target like a naval task force or assembly area in eastern Poland. Their thinking is that they can push across the nuclear thresh hold to bring NATO to the negotiating table, since NATO will be unwilling to cross the same threshold.

-Regardless, if the Russians think this course is too risk and decide not to go nuclear, or if a limited nuclear strike fails to bring NATO to the table, then after several months NATO would launch a powerful offensive into Kaliningrad and the Baltic states to reclaim the lost territory.

Regardless, I think this whole potential conflict is great fodder for SPMBT scenarios, especially the eventual NATO counter-offensive!

[Suhiir]

I really doubt anyone would go nuclear over the Baltics, and this I think is what the Russians would count on.

The real question in my mind is ... what's in the Baltics that's worth the trouble to Russia? A few people ... pffft. No rare materials I'm aware of. No vast tracts of land for agriculture. Seriously, if I were Russia I'd say why bother.