Luck3 gold boni

[Cainehill]

Sheap said:

This isn't really true. Luck significantly decreases the odds of bad events happening. Turmoil, yes, increases the odds of bad events, but by significantly less, if you have luck.

Turmoil is real bad, but because of the income effect, not the random events.

Yes, it is really true. Luck increases the odds of random events of either flavor happening. More events means ... more bad events, even though each individual event that happens is less likely to be bad.

Let's say the baseline is a 20% chance of an event happening in a province. If you have Order-3, you only have a 5% chance of an event happening. If you take Luck-3 though, you're back to a 20% chance of an event happening, and a 35% chance it'll be a bad event.

If this was the baseline, and all you had was your capital, Order-3 would on average have 1 bad and 1 good event in 40 turns. With Order-3 Luck-3, you get 8 events, roughly 5 good, 3 bad. Three times as many bad events as if you stuck with Order-3 and no luck.

That means - 3 times as much a probability of getting death events. And since there are few if any events that increase population (having played Last of the Tuatha, mandatory Luck and Growth several times and never getting one), Luck-3 really does increase the odds of catastrophic loss of population.

[Borg]

Cainehill,
I've played for over 40 turns now under Turmoil3/luck3 scales
and I have had NO (repeat "NO") really bad events happening to me.
The worst stuff that has happened so far is a "group of rebellions (or such) taking up residence in a province and increasing unrest". (big deal , he ?
I have had no library burn downs, temple destructions , hurricanes or storms of any kind hit my provinces, nothing of the really bad stuff, nothing that made me shout "sh!t" ........ and that is AFTER 40+ turns, which leads me to believe that luck3 eliminates the "worst events" from among the possible events.

I'm just guessing here ........ maybe all events simple fall into a certain Category, like Luck3 , luck2 .. all the way down to BadLuck3.
Maybe the worst you can get under luck3 scales is a "BadLuck1" event ....... so no Badluck2 and BadLuck3 events there (just guessing though, but it certainly points that way, from my perspective anyway)

[Karacan]

It would be fine if that was so. I once had my temple and lab burn down on me in turn 5 and turn 6, consecutively. That was with Order 2, Luck 3.
The gods (me) be praised that it was only a singleplayer.

I usually take both, Order and Luck.

[The_Tauren13]

not long ago i had turmoil 3 and luck 3 and got my capitol hit with -25% pop on about turn 5

[Pickles]

Pah I had turmoil 2 luck 3 & a Jade Empeoror (mitigates bad luck) & I got -25% pop on my first turn (of my first ever MP game)

Pickles

[deccan]

Heh, Boron and I both had luck 3 in our MP game, and both of us had our lab burn down before turn 5.

[Graeme Dice]

Pickles said:
Pah I had turmoil 2 luck 3 & a Jade Empeoror (mitigates bad luck) & I got -25% pop on my first turn (of my first ever MP game)

The Jade emperor does not prevent unlucky events. The jade emperor has a 10% chance per turn of causing a good event.

[Cainehill]

Borg said:
Cainehill,
I've played for over 40 turns now under Turmoil3/luck3 scales and I have had NO (repeat "NO") really bad events happening to me.

This may count as a bad play on words, but ... You were really lucky.

I used to play turmoil3/luck3 a _lot_, back in March / April. I also played Turmoil-1/luck-3, turmoil-2/luck-3, etc : Zen once mocked me by saying, "Yes, and I remember when you used to like turmoil 3 / luck 3".

Luck 3 definately doesn't protect against the really bad things. With Luck-3, I had 40% of my capital's population wiped out in a single event prior to turn 5 (This was a mosehansen game where I played Abysia with a pathetic VQ - my only VQ ever in MP). Of course - 2 turns later, I got 1500 gold, a magic item, and some gems. But the luck didn't do anything to protect against the worst events - burned temple and burned lab early suck, but 40% population loss is the worst whammy event I've come across so far.

Also with Luck-3, I had labs burn, temples burn, floods killing population, barbarian attacks, knight attacks, etc. Nope - luck-3 doesn't protect against the worst events, it might be worthwhile if it did. I believe that Luck-3 _is_ however necessary for some of the best events, like the 1500 gold and a magic item (also requires Magic-1 or 2 minimum).