Standing up to China

[Double_Deuce]

Just curious what people thought on this.

Suppose China went all in on securing SouthWestern Pacific resources for themselves, without worrying about the possibility of triggering armed conflict. Say also, that the US made it clear (for whatever reason you want to give) that they would not become directly involved. Would any of the affected Pacific nations, currently included in WinSPMBT, stand up to her, even knowing that they may be doing to alone? Would they put aside old animosities and band together against the common threat?

Thoughts?

[mkr8683]

For what it's worth, I see little reason to doubt the Australians, Japanese, and Taiwanese would jump in without US assistance.

[Double_Deuce]

Agreed. I was thinking it would be left to those with the most coastline along the South China Sea, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines and who have the most to lose. None of them would likely stand a chance, at least at sea or the air.

[duff]

Historically the Vietnamese have been willing to face China with only logistical support from the Soviet Union in the 1970s and I believe have skirmished with the Chinese more recently as well - You could certainly justify an argument that they would stand up again with or without assistance.

[Suhiir]

Big problem the Chinese have is a lack of naval assets.
REALLY hard to invade Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines without proper support and especially sealift.
While none of those nations have a Navy worth mentioning themselves what little they have would make a Chinese invasion unlikly.

[Aeraaa]

Originally Posted by Suhiir

Big problem the Chinese have is a lack of naval assets.
REALLY hard to invade Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines without proper support and especially sealift.
While none of those nations have a Navy worth mentioning themselves what little they have would make a Chinese invasion unlikly.

Which is why I think the Chinese military is overrated.

[arkhangelsk]

China would find it hard to invade them outright, but its naval and air forces are enough that if the US doesn't bail them out, China can make life h*ll on the SE Asia nations.

But that would be a battle more suited for this wargame:
http://www.warfaresims.com/?page_id=1101

[Mobhack]

Or you can simply do what the Chinese are already doing to secure resources, especially e.g. in Africa - buy them, and set up Chinese owned companies to do the development projects.

China is using its cash reserves from all that manufacture of goods for the globalised economy much as Britain used its money as "gold soldiers" in the Napoleonic era.

Western governments give aid as cash money, which the officials squirrel away in Switzerland, usually... Chinese aid is done by a Chinese company that actually makes the dam, lays the roads, builds the mines or whatever the aid package was supposed to do. And they buy Chinese parts, trucks etc, thus helping the Chinese economy. Experts are Chinese, labour is provided by the host. The Chinese way of doing aid projects does bring benefits to both sides - unlike the western gifts of cash tend to, IMHO.

The Chinese armed forces are defensive, they have no need to go out invading their neighbours. They are not particularly large in percentage terms, just appear so in total. But the country and population is huge. Same goes for India - army looks large in totality, but not when seen as a %age of the teeming population.

Taiwan - just wait, and the errant child will be reunited to the fold as with Hong Kong. It may be 50 years hence - which is just a blink in the Chinese view of timescales.
Tibet - already integrated with China by the simple expedient of exporting settlers.

The Chinese work in the long term - a decade is just a tick of the clock.

They are not a militarily adventurous nation, and never have been. They are content to hold onto the "Middle Kingdom".

But they have though been invaded by "foreign barbarians" many times, or have had periods of anarchy when the central government has lost control. The WW2 warlord period being the last time, and in Chinese terms it was yesterday. That scenario is what the Chinese armed forces are there to avoid. The Chinese value stability, and abhor chaos. So their leaders favour a strong stable centralised government, where change is managed in a slow and steady planned manner - whether the old Imperial system or the current Party one and they do not like democracy ("chaos").

So - the likelihood of a "Chinese horde" going on the rampage is a little above nil, really. Just do not invade them or get into a border dispute about land that they consider to be "Han".

And since this thread is now getting onto Political chat - if someone does not produce a "what if" scenario out of it, best to let it die off. We do not have a political chatter forum, and don't want one either.

If there is a campaign or scenarios - then we can move it to the campaigns & scenarios sub-forum.

cheers
Andy

[Double_Deuce]

Originally Posted by Mobhack

And since this thread is now getting onto Political chat - if someone does not produce a "what if" scenario out of it, best to let it die off. We do not have a political chatter forum, and don't want one either.

If there is a campaign or scenarios - then we can move it to the campaigns & scenarios sub-forum.

Well, they do say war is politics by other means.

Honestly, a possible what-if campaign is what prompted this thread. The Pacific is not my "area" so I am not familiar with a lot of the friction points there other than what is generally known propaganda although I have taken a stab at it before. For now I have worked up the basic story of a Chinese based user campaign but what I need is a credible/probable opponent for them that's not going to seem to far out there in make believe land.

Than being said, can you go ahead and move this thread to the Campaigns, Scenarios & Maps section.

[duff]

First, let me suggest pick a timeline of events which suit what you want to design and go with it.

Politically there is tension between China and: Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, over ownership of islands which would support a claim to exploit valuable ocean. Without suggesting there is likely to be military conflict it would not (in my opinion) be too big a stretch to build a camp/scenario based around very limited military clashes over the islands (maybe commando raids on islands or naval bases). A more thoroughly hypothetical choice could see the clashes get bigger.