Thermodyne: "If you were looking closely when the nuke went off, it took out a big portion of the fleet. Which based on the head count could make their survival a moot point."
Well, they gave the population of "New Caprica City" as about 39K. Allowing for skeleton crews on the orbiting ships, the nuke could have taken out nearly 20% of the fleet.
Thermodyne: "And I can�t see them letting their guard down that way. They would have posted pickets all along the frontier to warn of approaching Cylons."
Uh, we ARE talking about the Colonial military here. You know, the people who gave Baltar a functional NUCLEAR WARHEAD when all he needed was the plutonium, and then didn't even put a 24-hour guard on the NUCLEAR WARHEAD, even with at least one known Cylon on the loose, and didn't check on him from time to time to make sure he still had the NUCLEAR WARHEAD.
Strangely, though, the ships in orbit did seem to have their FTL drives spun up and at least one jump pre-plotted; they got out pretty fast when the Cylons showed up. With the dumbest humans marooned on New Caprica, the fleet is probably more likely to reach Earth now.
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My guess, though, is that the series will focus on the New Caprica concentration camp, run by the now-benevolent Cylons, as a kind of "Hogan's Heroes" type show. Starbuck will play Hogan, and the Quisling Baltar will be the unfortunate and ineffectual Klink, running the camp for the Cylons. I suspect some poor Centurion will play Schultz, occasionally declaring in a robotic monotone, "I see nothing!"