Questions by a MP Newb

[Soyweiser]

Barb attacks happen a lot more than once every 5 turns. You also don't calculate gold upkeep costs, unrest costs, army hiring costs. Lost turns by having to constantly move armies around, pd costs. The fact that provinces are not equal, and with misf your cap has a high chance of getting hit by unrest events. (your cap is your highest income province, bad events there hit you very hard. And with only 1 province at the start guess where all the bad events go). Having forts locked down for a few turns (or even one).

If we lived in magical fairy land where all provinces are equal and there is only one bad event which are barbarians, and they only destroy population, unrest doesn't exist. You might have a point.

In real games you have unrest, your cap gets hit by bad events first. (And you always get turn 2 or 3 30 unrest events, cutting your gold income by more than 70%). There is no way you are even getting an increase in total gold after 80 turns with such a handicap at the start.

And even without that, a barb attack normally takes away 10 - 20% of the population, gives around 15 points of unrest due to the combat. (So the turn after you take it back is worth only 50% of income). You lose the province for a turn (no gold).

All the little things add up. (Turmoil also unlocks earthquakes, hurricanes, vulcanoes, rebels, lab destruction event). Not taking turmoil is the best way to increase your gold income. It is even better than taking order.

[bbz]

Originally Posted by Soyweiser

Barb attacks happen a lot more than once every 5 turns. You also don't calculate gold upkeep costs, unrest costs, army hiring costs. Lost turns by having to constantly move armies around, pd costs. The fact that provinces are not equal, and with misf your cap has a high chance of getting hit by unrest events. (your cap is your highest income province, bad events there hit you very hard. And with only 1 province at the start guess where all the bad events go). Having forts locked down for a few turns (or even one).

If we lived in magical fairy land where all provinces are equal and there is only one bad event which are barbarians, and they only destroy population, unrest doesn't exist. You might have a point.

In real games you have unrest, your cap gets hit by bad events first. (And you always get turn 2 or 3 30 unrest events, cutting your gold income by more than 70%). There is no way you are even getting an increase in total gold after 80 turns with such a handicap at the start.

And even without that, a barb attack normally takes away 10 - 20% of the population, gives around 15 points of unrest due to the combat. (So the turn after you take it back is worth only 50% of income). You lose the province for a turn (no gold).

All the little things add up. (Turmoil also unlocks earthquakes, hurricanes, vulcanoes, rebels, lab destruction event). Not taking turmoil is the best way to increase your gold income. It is even better than taking order.

First: why are you talking about Turmoil, when we are arguing about Order3 misf2?

We are talking about the synnergy between Order misfortune.

Originally Posted by Soyweiser

If we lived in magical fairy land where all provinces are equal and there is only one bad event which are barbarians, and they only destroy population, unrest doesn't exist. You might have a point.

If you take unrest into account its not going to change the whole picture as much you'd still be getting more gold. If you take all the things you said into account you'd still break even by turn 80.
I can't be bothered to explain it to you now though it is really tedeous and there is a chance that you wouldn't get me.

Also I am not talking about ideal world I am generalizing. Yes you will get 1 in 10 times hit in the capital. But the rest 9/10 you won't get hit. Thats why we need the concept of generalization because if you average all your games the overall result will be the average one.(hence all provinces being the same in my example)

If we wanted to get to the end of it. I'd take many hours of calculating chances to see the overall result and to see which is better to have(and that still will be the average case).OFc you can get lucky and only have nice events and not loose a single province from a barbarian attack. Or get attacked more often. But you cannot use that as an example for general case. General case is governed by statistics I was merely trying to show you some basic calculation(which are off by quite a bit because there are as you said so many factors). But as I said My guess would be that if you manage to get 4 more provinces for the cost of 80 desing points put in misfortune provided that you have taken Order3. Then you'd be on the winning side of the deal or break even.

[Soyweiser]

Originally Posted by bbz

We are talking about the synnergy between Order misfortune.

My bad, I was very busy, and was having a lot of trouble getting the events excel sheet from staying open. Ignore that.

[bbz]

Originally Posted by Soyweiser

My bad, I was very busy, and was having a lot of trouble getting the events excel sheet from staying open. Ignore that.

Yea no prob.

[parone]

kind of funny. soy talking about "if we lived in a magical fairie land". ummm, soy, what exactly do you think dominions is?

[Soyweiser]

A computer game with fairly clearly set rules and boundaries. No map has provinces that all have 100 income. So there is little use in using that as an example.

[bbz]

Originally Posted by Soyweiser

A computer game with fairly clearly set rules and boundaries. No map has provinces that all have 100 income. So there is little use in using that as an example.

Ok so you still didn't understand why I used it as an example. Imagine a map where you have around 10 provinces. for each player. So you get your share of 10 provinces and those 10 provinces provide 1000 gold income Between all of them. What is the difference between the 10 provinces providing 10 100 gold and say the new case: 2 provinces providin 25 1 providing 50 1 providing 400 3 providing 75 and 2 providing 125. There is no difference. The avarege ammount of gold you are going to loose due to barbarian attacks is the same over the game or over couple of games, as it is with the 100 gold example. Since those events are supposed to be random they are supposed to be be happening with an equal chance over all your provinces.
Giving you 1000 gold income as an example is the easiest example to be more realistic empires get around 15 provinces (in MP expansion phase of the game) with income of around 1500(Ofcourse it depends on many other factors like if you take production or not if you take death or not but if you want to compare two things its better to abstract yourself from those details for a better comparison) so a Net income of 1500 would have been easier for you to understand. But there is no difference between between getting 10 provinces with 1000 overall income and 15 provinces with overall income 1500. the average is 100 gold per province.


P.s I by no means mean that 100gold per province is the average gold income for multiplayer. To check this you'd have to take statistics from all the multiplayer games ever played. And to average them(something which is impossible) So you have to work with rough data. For some games it could be 125 gold per province for others it would be 75 but that wouldnt change my calculations in any way since they are percentage based (how many luck events/ unlucky events are happening)(so at the end it would end up to be the same gain)

[bbz]

But thats enough on the topic from me. If you still don't get what I mean we can agree to disagree

@ parone: I loved the comment:P it made me smile.

[Soyweiser]

I get what you are trying to say. I just disagree. And I disagree with how you selectively leave away information to build your point.

In your fantasy fairy simulation of the dominions game your points are valid. But not in the real dominions game.

If your capital gets hit on turn 5 with a 10% population reduction which also gives a healthy dose of unrest, you are set back a lot. Income wise. The earlier the game the higher the chance this happens. I already mentioned a lot of other bad effects of losing provinces, and I have thought of more, losing control of a province wrecks supply lines, and can make your movement harder.

You also only focus on barbarians. There are a lot more bad events. Misf unlocks new bad events, make events more likely, and makes bad events more likely.

I do not like that bad event synergy. And no fake math is going to convince me otherwise.

[bbz]

I guess you can't force somebody to learn. Its his own choice.