Ukraine 2021(?)

[shahadi]

Originally Posted by DRG

She last posted 26th May 2021. She does has not replied to emails I have sent though they are not bounced

Given everything that has gone on since 26th May 2021 and that she had pre-existing health issues it doesn't look good

Understood.

She slapped me around a few times in the forum, but she was always firm, fair, and one hell of a gal.

[DRG]

It's a given that MBT in particular is a game of "what if" battles. That is pretty much why SP2 was created and why we developed SPMBT

A few years back I created a "Goldap" map for SPWW2. Goldap was the first East Prussian city that was captured by the Soviets and over the course of late 1944 it changed hands a few times and is now part of Poland

That map is also in MBT ( map 416 ) I *may* update it for MBT with the city expanded to its current size depending on time available but at the time I built it I put the city in the centre and filled in the terrain around it to the max sized map allowed.

I did not realize until I was mostly done that in a modern Context the "northern" border of that map is almost exactly the border between Poland and the Russian Kaliningrad oblast. It couldn't be closer if I had planned it that way but I didn't. That's just the way it worked out .

[wulfir]

I have made a few fairly realistic maps of UA-RU border regions for a fictional MBT campaign, a "what if" invasion of Ukraine taking place in 2023. It was based on a much less ambitious Russian invasion than the real thing taking place now. Essentially I envisioned a single drive on Kyiv using brute force but with no fancy stuff like deep airborne operations and also a Russian efforts at avoiding massive destruction to Ukrainian infrastructure in the wider country, outside the combat zone...

The real deal seems to be a much more complex and brutal operation. Guess I'll have to convert them to winter maps now...


Some images of this fictional setup below (i.e. NOT what is taking place in reality now). Maybe the maps can be used for something else? It's possible that many of these locations fell without much fighting. One of these maps is based on the approaches to Hluchiv along the E38 and the Kleven river crossing at Zarutske. There is footage of about 15 Russian T-72s being zapped along a road, claimed to have been killed in the Hluchiv region by Javelin ATGMs...

[MarkSheppard]

I've been away due to work (being so tired from one day that I went straight to sleep and slept through the opening of the war; and then being at work for two straight days due to an ice storm for the first two days of the war).



Looks like the Russians/Belarusians used the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone to pass through for their western pincer on Kiev.

So far with this war we have:

• Battle of Chernobyl in the Exclusion Zone
• Failed VDV air assault at Hostomel Airport -- VDV landed in helicopters and were wiped out after 8 hours.
• Failed VDV airborne landings at Vasylkiv Airport, two IL-76s were shot down (claimed by US officials).

Russian casualties claimed by the Ukrainians for the first 36 hours (I think) are:

100+ tanks
500+ "Armoured Combat Vehicles"
17+ aircraft (helos and jets)
3000~ troops.

I would have downgraded the Ukrainian estimates to 1000~ killed; since after all, you can count burned out wrecks on the battlefield and be sure of vehicle losses; but human losses are hard.

But after the Vasylkiv assault with two IL-76s shot down, I'm inclined now to increase it to 2000~ killed.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by wulfir

I have made a few fairly realistic maps of UA-RU border regions for a fictional MBT campaign, a "what if" invasion of Ukraine

If you would like those maps included in the next update forward them to me by mid March

I have added " Citizens Militia" units and formations to the Ukrainian OOB

[wulfir]

Originally Posted by DRG

If you would like those maps included in the next update forward them to me by mid March

Sure thing - couple of question though, most of those Ukr maps are very "summery" maps - what's best here given the somewhat unusual current situation; keep them that way or make them "spring/winterish".

Or make duplicates (summer and winter versions)?

What map slot should I start with?

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by DRG

If you would like those maps included in the next update forward them to me by mid March

May I kindly suggest that a 15~ day delay be put onto this year's update?

The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly, and there are signs you might have to do another flag update this year (besides Afghanistan).

Belarus may be undergoing a slow motion revolution.

Background in a series of tweets:

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https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/st...Sg687GfjA&s=19

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya)
Lukashenka committed treason – he made our country a participant in the invasion of Ukraine. So I declared myself as the national leader of Belarus to protect the sovereignty & independence of our country, represent it in security negotiations & crisis management in the region.

Basically, Tsikhanouskaya is the only person who challenged Luka in the 2020 elections and she was forced into exile in Eastern Europe (Poland/Balt States) as a result.

===========

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1497649869909118976

Belsat (quoting multiple sources): Belarusian troops expect to be deployed to fight in Ukraine in a few days.

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https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...gTHYaH6Lg&s=19

Lukashenko confirms missile strikes have been launched from Belarus against Ukraine because "Kyiv deployed 3-4 missile divisions near our border".

==============

What's happening today is a vote on the 2022 Belarusian Constitutional Referendum (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_B...nal_referendum)

that

Basically gives Lukashenko Immunity for acts he commits/committed as president of Belarus

Changes Article 18 of the Belarusian constitution that says "the Republic of Belarus aims at making its territory a nuclear-free zone", enabling Russia to deploy its nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.

==============


https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Belarusians chanting "No to war" outside one of polling stations in Minsk right now. Via @MotolkoHelp

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https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Given the level of repression, the only possible for Belarusians to gather in protest against the invasion was to turn out to vote in the referendum at the same time all across the country – today at 2PM local time. It seems to have worked! Videos coming from all over the country

==============

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Lukashenka's flag was removed from the #Belarusian embassy in #Vilnius and replaced with the national white-pass-white flag and the #Ukrainian flag. It is reported that the national flag was also noticed at the Belarusian embassy in #Paris.

=====================

We may be seeing a slow motion coup/revolution inside Belarus, provoked by Lukashenko's actions.

Right now, I think it all depends on what Luka does in the next 24 hours.

The previous SRBM and airstrikes he had the Belarussian Air Force launch against Ukraine can be walked back, with some difficulty, but committing ground forces to Ukraine kind of can't.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard

May I kindly suggest that a 15~ day delay be put onto this year's update?.

Mid March is the aim point for submissions like scenarios NOT when we will release the update. We are WELL AWARE that the situation is fluid ( Gee.. Ya think ? ) and there may need to be serious adjustments. Andy and I exchanged at least 2 dozen emails yesterday

That said this is reported to be a wrecked Russian MT-LBM and it isn't exactly what you would call a top tier combat vehicle

( unless someone thought this was going to be a.......“We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.”...... exercise)

[DRG]

As a tie in with the post I made the other day

The quality of the equipment seems really sub par and " well used" . LINK


Recalling the comment made in the movie Kelly's Heros by Moriarty when they "acquired" the Tiger

It's a piece of junk! The fuel system leaks all over the place. It's a piece of junk!

==========================================

Originally Posted by DRG

Mid March is the aim point for submissions like scenarios NOT when we will release the update. We are WELL AWARE that the situation is fluid ( Gee.. Ya think ? ) and there may need to be serious adjustments. Andy and I exchanged at least 2 dozen emails yesterday

That said this is reported to be a wrecked Russian MT-LBM and it isn't exactly what you would call a top tier combat vehicle

( unless someone thought this was going to be a.......“We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.”...... exercise)

[DRG]

Relevant to the conversation but slightly off topic ( but only a bit ) I wanted to take a look at the region between the Chernobyl exclusion zone and Kiev

This is the Pripyat east of Chernobyl

https://www.venhola.com/maps/geo.php#30.40,51.21,0

Imagine navigating a boat through that.....