MP: Nox. MA+LA. Unexpectedly ended

[Squirrelloid]

Stupid editing time limits...

To hit me they need to overcome the following:
Awe +0 vs. morale 13 (70% chance to bypass)
Ethereal (25% chance to bypass)
Def 15 vs. Att 10 (14% chance) - i realize this goes up over time, except 'misses' due to ethereal and awe don't count as attacks for the multiple attacks against you penalty.

In addition, it requires them to not have broken vs. Fear +9 by turn 5 of melee (morale 13 vs. 11 = 62% chance to not break each turn) when the strike occurred. (And of course, their morale is actually decreasing that entire time - it was 4-6 for the entire squad when they hit him). Assuming constant 13 morale that's a 38% chance to break every turn, or a ~9% chance to not have broken before their 5th strike.

So, there are 11 ichthyids in base contact the entire time (they were faster than the other, non-net bearing ichthyids, who didn't get there until it was over, and who broke immediately upon entering the fear radius). Ignoring the P(they break), they each have a ~2.5% chance of hitting, which is low enough that the benefit from being a second strike doesn't actually come into play often enough to matter. That's an expected 1 hit per 4 rounds. And it gets worse as their morale plummets because the Awe becomes more effective.

And I have Twist Fate cast, which negates that hit.

So, still assuming constant morale, the odds that they score at least 2 hits in five rounds overall look something like the following:

P(fail fear round 2) * P(2 hits round 1|11 attacks) + P(fail fear round 3) + P(2 hits round 1+2) + ...

Except then we have to subtract off inconvenient bits and the like. So even granting they make it to round 5 its...

= (55 choose 2) * P(hit) ^2 * P(no hit)^53

= 1485 * .000625 * .261 = .24, or a 24% chance of dealing damage even once.

Now, you expect them to inflict 13 damage before protection/random bonus is taken into account, which makes the likelihood of a sufficiently damaging event to cause the pretender to break is small even given a hit. 10% is rather generous, and that drops us down to a 2.4% event. 13 + drn vs. protection + drn doesn't result in *30* damage even that often. Assuming that protection is 0 and the drn is snakeeyes, the attacker's drn would have to be 19, which requires at least 2 6's to be rolled (with a 5 and a 4), making it a 1/150 type of event. Once we figure in the protection drn it becomes even rarer.

So ballparking, the odds of my pretender losing that battle are somewhere down around .1-.01%, and certainly no greater than .1%. And that's ignoring (1) they break before 5 rounds of melee complete and (2) their morale decreases due to fear over the course of the combat (makes Awe better). That probably makes it a .001% event with an upper bound around .01%.

Edit: I didn't take into account more than 2 hits. The third hit events adds another .6% (irrelevant for ballparking, its not an OoM). The fourth+ hit events add insignificant amounts. So consider the P(2+ hits|55 attacks) = ~.246

[Dragar]

Definitely very unlucky, slight comments on risk assessment:

Am pretty sure failed attacks still reduce your defence.. so the chance of getting past your defence is very high for the later attackers, ignoring ethereal/fear/awe

Did you have any fatigue?

Lastly, chance of improbable failure MP >>> chance of improbable failure SP


Lastly for real - why did a retreat make your pretender die? Why didn't you just return to home province if routing?

[Squirrelloid]

Originally Posted by Dragar

Definitely very unlucky, slight comments on risk assessment:

Am pretty sure failed attacks still reduce your defence.. so the chance of getting past your defence is very high for the later attackers, ignoring ethereal/fear/awe

Did you have any fatigue?

Lastly, chance of improbable failure MP >>> chance of improbable failure SP


Lastly for real - why did a retreat make your pretender die? Why didn't you just return to home province if routing?

The little buggers still hadn't routed to fear, and were faster than me, so chased me down (and managed to hit me again, which I suppose is also incredibly unlikely in its own right)

No more than 5 fatigue from casting Twist Fate.

[chrispedersen]

I don't believe you really ran it 60 times, without losing.
Nets are dangerous - but even more than that, lack of dominion in the target province will cost you hp, strength, and MR.

*Plus* if you attack with troops, you will lose the morale bonus.

A few comments:

A. Multiple attacks still negate defense. *you* don't know etherealness is going to kick in - so you still flinch.
B. When you route, you have -4 (iir) to your defense, so it is much more likely to hit - plus your opponent gets a free attmpt for you leaving the Zoc.
C. For them to break from fear, they have to not only take morale losses, but they have to take casualties (wounds or deaths) to *prompt* the morale check. So essentially, until some of them are wounded, (or receive a morale check from other sources, like wailing winds etc) there is 0% chance.
Additionally, they get the +1 home territory, perhaps.


Thats why you can see a whole squad of 0 morale troops still attacking.

D. Units of 4 or less, (including gods) are subject to the rule of 4: Ie., if you take *any* damage you are subject to route. (pg 80) via morale check.
And remember that you were lower on hp; to get the wounded modifier you only had to lose 25%. But more importantly, once a morale check is called for the

morale roll (squad morale + DRN + 5) >? 13 + DRN. As the DRN's are open ended, more or less every round you take damage you're subject to an open ended roll.

E. Finally, fatigue was probably a factor. After turn3, you were (possibly) greater than fatigue 10, reducing defense, and (possibly) increasing a crit chance.

I'm fairly sure against 30 opponents.. twist fate actually increased the chance of someone hitting you (one turn earlier than it usually would have happened).

The gods roll dice. Sorry yours came up 00 this time man.

The good thing is LA-R Freespawns will call God for free = )

[chrispedersen]

amen on the editing time limits;

"Once one net hits, all the other attacks will hit, due to the tanglevines spell effect. I also don't know whether you were subject to repels. Again, even 1 pt of damage is enough to enable the morale flee.

I'm fairly sure against 30 opponents.. twist fate actually increased the chance of someone hitting you (one turn earlier than it usually would have happened).

That really does suck man- but theres only a very few pretenders I'll attack blind with. I'd figure your chance of losing at maybe 5-10%. "

[Squirrelloid]

Well, I didn't get hit while netted, so that wasn't even really a factor.

They did get wounded (or slain) every turn i managed to attack. So i guess i only provoked 2-3 fear checks since 2 turns i had to shrug off nets. But their morale was lower than 13 at that point...

And I had no source of fatigue except casting twist fate. Reasonably certain it's a 0 fatigue attack since GKs don't wear armor. You only aquire fatigue from attacking as i recall - maybe i'm wrong, but i don't recall units gaining fatigue from being attacked (barring special attacks), and i've looked.

No, the unrecoverable part is the loss of magic paths - there's no way i can come back from the severe neutering of my pretender and the cumulative lack of expansion his death implies. Yeah, he'll be back at some time i'm sure.

As to attacking blind - i'd have attacked 30 ichthiids knowing they were there. The only thing i'd hesitate about is large numbers of trolls and/or krakens. And that's both rare and also an expected win. (Its just the potential damage is high enough to be worrying).

...How does twist fate increase the odds of an attack hitting you anyway? By giving you fatigue?

Failing a check vs. 30 morale is kinda ridiculous... but eh.

Also: I thought you counted the province you were attacking *from* for determining hp.

[Dragar]

Yeah the fatigue - the lowering of attack and defence at 5 fatigue is minimal, but it gives a slight chance of a critical and thus ignoring your protection

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Squirrelloid

Well, I didn't get hit while netted, so that wasn't even really a factor.

They did get wounded (or slain) every turn i managed to attack. So i guess i only provoked 2-3 fear checks since 2 turns i had to shrug off nets. But their morale was lower than 13 at that point...

And I had no source of fatigue except casting twist fate. Reasonably certain it's a 0 fatigue attack since GKs don't wear armor. You only aquire fatigue from attacking as i recall - maybe i'm wrong, but i don't recall units gaining fatigue from being attacked (barring special attacks), and i've looked.

No, the unrecoverable part is the loss of magic paths - there's no way i can come back from the severe neutering of my pretender and the cumulative lack of expansion his death implies. Yeah, he'll be back at some time i'm sure.

As to attacking blind - i'd have attacked 30 ichthiids knowing they were there. The only thing i'd hesitate about is large numbers of trolls and/or krakens. And that's both rare and also an expected win. (Its just the potential damage is high enough to be worrying).

...How does twist fate increase the odds of an attack hitting you anyway? By giving you fatigue?

Failing a check vs. 30 morale is kinda ridiculous... but eh.

Also: I thought you counted the province you were attacking *from* for determining hp.

Oh, you did this with a GK? I thought you had a kraken. There's no way in hell I'd do it with a GK. They're fragile.

Essentially, all you have to do to lose with a GK is get hit for 50% of your hitpoints. Which you're probably talking is somewhere between 5-15dam.

After that, you're going to take a morale check every round - and again the tyranny of the DRN is two chances for an open ended 6. Every round for 50 rounds.

PLUS with a GK - and hit that occurs is going to have a significant chance of afflicting you.

PLUS even if you weren't hit while netted, you have to use your attacks to become unentangled - so you're not causing damage, aka inflicting a morale check.

PLUS - the chance of attacking a hydromancer blind is too high - since the hydromancer will cast water strikes which will bypass ethereal.

Water adds encumbrance for poor amphibians, but I do not remember if it affects undead. Battle replay would show that = )

[ano]

Well, all has been said. It's up to you, Squirreloid whether to leave the game, of course. Obviously, it is no good. But I might add from myself that you will learn sooner or later why attacking blindly on the first turn is... unwise. Kraken is probably the safest for this but I do remember slayed Krakens as well.
Chris said everything. GK is really fragile, has no regen and once he gets hit, he has a much increased chance to root. Ichtyids, OTOH, are really dangerous with their nets that severely lower defense. Also, they have wonderful morale and it is well known that they're dangerous for early SC's. So, I'm not surprised here.

[Squirrelloid]

Originally Posted by ano

Well, all has been said. It's up to you, Squirreloid whether to leave the game, of course. Obviously, it is no good. But I might add from myself that you will learn sooner or later why attacking blindly on the first turn is... unwise. Kraken is probably the safest for this but I do remember slayed Krakens as well.
Chris said everything. GK is really fragile, has no regen and once he gets hit, he has a much increased chance to root. Ichtyids, OTOH, are really dangerous with their nets that severely lower defense. Also, they have wonderful morale and it is well known that they're dangerous for early SC's. So, I'm not surprised here.

Oh, I'm sticking around. I'm just pretty sure I'm hosed. But I'll die to another player.