Updates in light of Ukraine war

[DRG]

Originally Posted by Imp

As a side note the Ukraine air force seems to be surviving by using the roads & nape of the earth. Laughed when I saw the fighter that returned with a road sign attached, they are flying low.

https://www.reuters.com/article/fact...-idUSL2N2VX2PI

Social media users have shared a collage showing photos of a Ukrainian jet they say flew so low it crashed into a road sign. While the incident traces back to August 2020, some online have shared it in the context of the Russian invasion in 2022.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by Imp

Some Observations
I think quite a lot of the Russian tanks are not fully equipped as in none functional ERA & pre Arena active defence systems are not very good.
Does it need to be looking in the direction the shot is coming from to work?.

For the systems to work they need to be installed and if installed.... turned on. There are no reports ( we are seeing ) that indicated any attacking missiles were defeated by anti-missle systems and that could be for anyone of three reasons

• They just are not installed as extensively as assumed
• They just don't work
• They weren't activated

Any one of those or all three. Shora ( VRRS ) (it would appear) needs to pick up the targetting laser for the missle. If it doesn't have one and it would appear it's not being fired towards the direction the turret sensors are pointed it's not going to deploy

ARENA (it would appear)............"uses a multi-function Doppler radar, which can be turned on and off by the tank commander. In conjunction with radar input, a digital computer scans an arc around the tank for threat"

So it has to be turned on and it "scans an arc around the tank" an "arc" does not suggest 360 degrees

The bottom line here is there is much we don't know because those that do know aren't revealing the strengths and weaknesses of the systems

What we do appear to "know" that in the past month if it's on and working it doesn't seem to be doing anything . Certainly the growing piles of burnt out scrap steel would suggest this but again....... it's not a "fair judgement" of a systems performance if they are not installed as SEEMS to be the case

The final bottom line is we can only simulate these systems in a limited way. The game does not differentiate between targeting systems and in the case of Shora many "modern" targeting systems do not use laser and the sytem ( that we know about ) seems to rely on that

There have been adjustments made to both the availability of these systems based on what APPEARS to be the case in 2022 and their effectiveness in detecting and defeating ATGM but it won't be perfect because it can never be perfect

[DRG]

Andy and I are of the opinion that, in Ukraine at least, Arena installation is NOT as common as was thought and I have, for the game AI anyway, made Arena tanks radio code 91 ( rare ) and introduced some versions without it that are radio code 92 (common ) which cuts down on the number of them showing up under AI control

What I had been lead to believe was the later gen arena launchers appear now to be just smoke grenade launchers



So it would appear the effectiveness or lack of in regards to Arena is more a case of it just not being installed in the majority

OR given most of the wrecks ***appear*** to have been made that way from attacks to the side it is just not that effective from that direction

OR

all or any of the above

[Wdll]

Never expected to see this in reality, but here is footage of something it's not that uncommon in the game.
An ATGM shooting down a helo.

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status...UovUD7zvlfDdgg

[DRG]

I wonder how that deal is panning out.......
https://militaryleak.com/2020/06/28/...n-battle-tank/

[Wdll]

Not entirely sure what happened with this battle, but...wow?
https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/st...CURK9OqfBF1vsg

[Aeraaa]

^Well, it's heavily edited, but at I see at least 2 BTRs totalled and prob a T72 damaged. The Ukrainian tank basically ambushed the Russian convoy from close range.

I'm sure I did have an encounter just like that in one of the scenarios/quickbattles in MBT.

[DRG]

The drone footage from this war has been particularly informative. The "ID tags" was a nice touch

[Wdll]

Scary how easy it is to fool the system. Good scary in this case, but still.

[DRG]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/send-swarm

Send In the Swarm
March 24, 2022

This quick take is part of our Crisis Crossroads series, which highlights timely analysis by CSIS scholars on the evolving situation in Ukraine and its security, economic, energy, and humanitarian effects.


The recent announcement that United States will send switchblade drones to Ukraine reflects the changing character of war and the importance of swarming. Swarming involves saturating a target with multiple small strikes as opposed to one decisive blow. By expanding arms transfers to include more capable swarming systems like the Israeli loitering munitions seen in Nagorno-Karabakh as well as new U.S. Marine capabilities like the Hero-120, the West can help Kyiv break the Russian sieges currently holding Ukrainian cities hostage.

Ukraine has already adapted tactical-level swarms to slow Russia’s advance. Similar to Finnish motti tactics, dispersed ambush teams attack Russian lines of communication to compound Moscow’s logistical challenges. In multiple instances, the Ukrainian armed forces have used drones to target artillery raids against Russian-seized airbases in Ukraine, including destroying as many as 30 vehicles and helicopters in Kherson.

Expanding the range and types of loitering munitions available to Ukraine will help them build on this success. The greatest threat to Ukraine right now is the ability of Russia to siege Ukrainian cities. The closer the Russian army gets to Kyiv, the more artillery and missile barrages it can fire on urban areas, putting pressure on Ukraine’s leaders to accept Russian demands. While surface-to-air missile transfers can help stop Russian aircraft and cruise missiles, they cannot stop artillery strikes. The same goes for anti-tank guided missiles, which perform the best ambushing convoys.

While the concept of swarming is as old as horse archers from ancient history, low-cost drones and persistent surveillance networks provide new technical means to the tactic. The result is an approach called mosaic that seeks to overwhelm adversaries short of a single, decisive battle.

Applied to the current war, long-range loitering munitions provide Ukrainian forces options for swarming Russian artillery and missile batteries striking cities like Kyiv and Mariupol. Faced with the prospect of suicide drones attacking their firing positions, already stretched Russian forces would have to pull back or reduce the volume of fire. The more Russian artillery and missile units Ukraine attacks, the harder it will become for Moscow to use medieval sieges as a negotiation tactic.

Swarming offers a low-cost, low-risk way of helping Ukraine defend its sovereign territory. Combined with sending surface-to-air missiles, it makes it more difficult for Russia to keep attacking Ukrainian cities in a way that limits escalation risks and helps accelerate a negotiated settlement.

Benjamin Jensen is a senior fellow for future war, gaming, and strategy in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

I added Switchblades to the Ukrainian OOB a couple weeks ago along with drones using the light helicopter unitclass and the Switchblades will also be found in the USA and British OOB under the control of elite specialist units ( Ukraine Spetsnaz, US Ranger , British RM Cdo ) The spotter drones were added to 19 OOB's

....and yes, when used together they are quite effective


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidha...h=66b61c5a7e6b

UPDATE: The Pentagon has confirmed that the new batch will also include 10 Switchblade 600 models — the much larger version of the loitering munition. We looked at the Switchblade 600 when it was launched in 2020. This is a 50-pound weapon rather than a 5-pound one, with a range in excess of 50 miles. And it has a much larger warhead, described as having similar effects to a Javelin missile. In other words, it can take out the heaviest Russian tanks. Again, the 600 can be teamed with Puma drones to ensure the highest-value targets are found and hit and no Switchblade is wasted.

I have not included this larger version of the Switchblade into the OOB's.........yet ........due to its very limited availability but one could easily be simulated by using the Israeli Hafiz / Spike NLOS coupled with a spotter drone