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Old September 26th, 2007, 01:13 PM

Lord_Bob Lord_Bob is offline
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Default Re: A quick intro to Bayes rule

It's more obvious if viewed as two marble bags. You have three marbes, 2 black and 1 white. You put one in one bag and two in another. There is a base chance of 33% of the white marble being in bag one and a base chance of it being in bag 2 of 66%. But then you take a black marble out of bag 2(which you will obviously be able to do). Now there is only one marble in each bag. So reaching in will pull only that marble out. But the BAG PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT CHANGED.
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