MP: Nox. MA+LA. Unexpectedly ended

[Squirrelloid]

Stupid editing time limits...

To hit me they need to overcome the following:
Awe +0 vs. morale 13 (70% chance to bypass)
Ethereal (25% chance to bypass)
Def 15 vs. Att 10 (14% chance) - i realize this goes up over time, except 'misses' due to ethereal and awe don't count as attacks for the multiple attacks against you penalty.

In addition, it requires them to not have broken vs. Fear +9 by turn 5 of melee (morale 13 vs. 11 = 62% chance to not break each turn) when the strike occurred. (And of course, their morale is actually decreasing that entire time - it was 4-6 for the entire squad when they hit him). Assuming constant 13 morale that's a 38% chance to break every turn, or a ~9% chance to not have broken before their 5th strike.

So, there are 11 ichthyids in base contact the entire time (they were faster than the other, non-net bearing ichthyids, who didn't get there until it was over, and who broke immediately upon entering the fear radius). Ignoring the P(they break), they each have a ~2.5% chance of hitting, which is low enough that the benefit from being a second strike doesn't actually come into play often enough to matter. That's an expected 1 hit per 4 rounds. And it gets worse as their morale plummets because the Awe becomes more effective.

And I have Twist Fate cast, which negates that hit.

So, still assuming constant morale, the odds that they score at least 2 hits in five rounds overall look something like the following:

P(fail fear round 2) * P(2 hits round 1|11 attacks) + P(fail fear round 3) + P(2 hits round 1+2) + ...

Except then we have to subtract off inconvenient bits and the like. So even granting they make it to round 5 its...

= (55 choose 2) * P(hit) ^2 * P(no hit)^53

= 1485 * .000625 * .261 = .24, or a 24% chance of dealing damage even once.

Now, you expect them to inflict 13 damage before protection/random bonus is taken into account, which makes the likelihood of a sufficiently damaging event to cause the pretender to break is small even given a hit. 10% is rather generous, and that drops us down to a 2.4% event. 13 + drn vs. protection + drn doesn't result in *30* damage even that often. Assuming that protection is 0 and the drn is snakeeyes, the attacker's drn would have to be 19, which requires at least 2 6's to be rolled (with a 5 and a 4), making it a 1/150 type of event. Once we figure in the protection drn it becomes even rarer.

So ballparking, the odds of my pretender losing that battle are somewhere down around .1-.01%, and certainly no greater than .1%. And that's ignoring (1) they break before 5 rounds of melee complete and (2) their morale decreases due to fear over the course of the combat (makes Awe better). That probably makes it a .001% event with an upper bound around .01%.

Edit: I didn't take into account more than 2 hits. The third hit events adds another .6% (irrelevant for ballparking, its not an OoM). The fourth+ hit events add insignificant amounts. So consider the P(2+ hits|55 attacks) = ~.246