OT: A Nuclear North Korea

[Thermodyne]

dogscoff said:

Then why does he spend so much time hanging around Tony Blair? Or himself, for that matter?

More to the point, what *can* they do? Invade? Not a good idea. Even if China doesn't intervene militarily or economically, this ain't no Iraq. Kim is well-armed, and even if he couldn't hope to hold off the rest of the world indefinitely, he could probably make any attempt at invasion painfully slow and messy. Besides, the coalition of the 'willing' has enough trouble getting popular support and troops for its existing wars.

Nuke 'em? Even worse idea. Quite apart from the hideous death toll in largely innoent North Koreans, the Japanese, South Koreans and Asia in general will be most upset about radioactive fallout, and it will only encourage Kim to fire his own nukes at... well, whoever it is he can actually hit with them (NK, probably.) Apparently he has invested heavily in putting his command and military facilities underground.

Sanctions? I don't think they will bother old Kim one bit.

Ask nicely? Worth a try, but don't hold your breath.

Try to decapitate the regime with some sort of James Bond action? Makes for good films, but unlikely to work and will probably cause more trouble (political vacuums suck) than good.

Sit it out, try to contain the threat & control movement of technology at the borders and wait for Kim to die/ get deposed? I think that's the course the world will take, simply because it's about the only one left. Of course it's hard to settle on such a patient course of (in)action while talking tough, and Bush does like to talk tough. I guess he'll hope he can put a hard-man facade on inactivity (shifting blame for the lack of action to the UN is my guess) until his term is up, then leave his successor to worry about it.

Sometimes I have to just shake my head and wonder about the state of the world.



1st, any nuclear deterrence gets its strength from the creditable ability to follow through if required. The actual use of the weapons would be a failure. The idea is that should the bad guys create a situation where the only option was nuclear weapons, then they would be used. This deters the bad guys from crossing the line. This has been the case in Korea since the 50�s. It�s just not talked about much and people have forgotten.

War between the US and North Korea is not a decision that the US is free to make. The South would be the ones putting it on the line, so the call is theirs. And they are fat and happy, so why would they opt for war? If the North invaded, they would take all of South Korea in two weeks, they have to. After two weeks they are out of fuel and food, having to rely on captured stocks to supply their army.

Should it come to war and in such a way as to allow the US to move ground forces into the region, then North Korea becomes a footnote of history in less than thirty days after the start of hostilities. While the north�s army is large and has big numbers on paper, they are not combat effective. They would do little more than create a target rich environment on a modern battle field. It would be a standard battle. AA suppression, followed with decapitation of the command and control. Then what remained of the air force would be eliminated. After that we would probably hold them in place with arty and air strikes until evidence of starvation among the ranks became visible. Then the armed forces of South Korea would move in and provide humanitarian aid. Wild cards would be gas and/or biological, but then you only ever get to use that stuff once. The real reason we don�t go to war is the cost to the US tax payer. There is very little to gain, and it�s not really in our backyard.

As to decapitation, we don�t do that anymore����But all things change. If the north invades the south, the US will respond with TNWs. Both Koreas know this. China knows this. The North Korean military knows this. There will be no war. A hard look at the NK�s military will show you that it is modeled on that of China. The primary threat is seen as coming form the local population, not an outside invader. Sure they talk the talk, but what are they really saying? �The US will invade us so we need a big army.� But the army is just a bump in the road against the power of America, so what is its real reason to exist? Its reason for being is to insure the continued existence of the North Korean dictatorship and the elite society that allows a few to benefit at the expense of many. North Korea is no longer a communist state; they have used the threat of war to become a hereditary military dictatorship. Those at the top live well, those at the bottom starve. The army�s main job is to keep the people in line, suppress the food and energy protests and prevent exchanges of information with the rest of the world.