Luck3 gold boni

[Cainehill]

Sheap said:

This isn't really true. Luck significantly decreases the odds of bad events happening. Turmoil, yes, increases the odds of bad events, but by significantly less, if you have luck.

Turmoil is real bad, but because of the income effect, not the random events.

Yes, it is really true. Luck increases the odds of random events of either flavor happening. More events means ... more bad events, even though each individual event that happens is less likely to be bad.

Let's say the baseline is a 20% chance of an event happening in a province. If you have Order-3, you only have a 5% chance of an event happening. If you take Luck-3 though, you're back to a 20% chance of an event happening, and a 35% chance it'll be a bad event.

If this was the baseline, and all you had was your capital, Order-3 would on average have 1 bad and 1 good event in 40 turns. With Order-3 Luck-3, you get 8 events, roughly 5 good, 3 bad. Three times as many bad events as if you stuck with Order-3 and no luck.

That means - 3 times as much a probability of getting death events. And since there are few if any events that increase population (having played Last of the Tuatha, mandatory Luck and Growth several times and never getting one), Luck-3 really does increase the odds of catastrophic loss of population.