Help my start

[Minrhael]

I think I have a problem with not expanding fast enough, always have played too defensively in most games. Figured I'd put a typical 10turn start up here and see if anyone had suggestions to help me out.

I play with independents6, sites60, 9 impossible AIs, everything else normal. Playing as Tuatha with a water9 blue dragon, order 1 magic 1 luck1, fortress, dominion 4.

Turn1:
Bid 175 on Heavy Inf merc company with 150 asking price.
Train bard, 11 longbowmen.
Set tax to 150.
Set castellan to patrol, scout sneak to nearest farmland, pretender to research construction.

T2:
got the mercs. Surrounding independents all look tough except one that says 50light inf. decide to hold a turn just in case that 50 is a low estimate.
Set bard to research.
Train bard, 11 longbowmen.
Set merc to patrol.
Scout moves in direction of a black candle.

T3:
Tax to 100.
Merc and castellan with all longbows to attack weakest province. Longbows to rear flank, others to guard commander in front and to side of longbows (mercs in front, personal infantry to side).
Set bard to research.
Scout spots Caelum just 3 provinces away, on a choke point so scout has to backtrack. Will ignore scout moves from here on unless something relevant is found.
Train Sidhe Champion & 2 Daoine.

T4:
enemy forces overstated, easy victory.
Brangwen joins (not normal, so I won't do anything with her other than research)
Sidhe lord to research
Will finish construction 2, rest to alteration.
Retain mercs for 95 gold.
ignore 2nd HI merc comp avail.
2armies attack weakest province.
PD+5 in new province.
Move scout, train 1 daoine, 0 gold left.

T5:
Win fight, haven't needed mercs yet, PD+5.
Sidhe champ forges owl quill.
all RP to alteration.
Train 4 daoine, Monk to send scouting.
Ignore archer merc group avail. Armies move to capital as nothing attackable that I'd beat.

T6:
Caelum declares war. casts CotW on province that had the 2 armies in, easily repelled.
PD to 12 in both provinces.
equip bard with owl quill, forge another.
Train 1 daoine, monk to scout. Attack weakest province with 2armies.

T7:
PD12 beat CotW. Capital beat CotW. Conquered easily, PD to 12.
Bid 95 on merc.
Equip owl quill, forge another. Alteration 2 researched, now put 20 into enchantment leaving rest in alteration. Attack weakest province with 2armies.

T8:
Vampire count takes province. Boo!
Conquered province, PD to 12, still haven't needed mercs.
Equip owl quill, champion researches now as will need air gems to forge anti missile charm.
Assign enough RP for alteration 3, rest into thaumaturgy. Pythium found, also not too far away.
Attack weakest province with 2armies.

T9:
Beat CotW.
Conquered province, STILL haven't needed mercs. PD to 12.
Enough RP into Thaumaturgy for level 2, rest into construction.
Have Brangwen forge amulet of missile protection. Usually at this point I recruit my Sidhe Lord to forge the amulet and become prophet. I then get construction to 4, forge a storm staff, head out with 25 or so daoine under the prophet with the storm staff and a wineskin.

The dragon gets the amulet and conquers provinces the monks and scout are finding easy enough, avoiding lizard provinces as learned Finally after multiple defeats Amazing how 15 or 20 longbowmen will mow down the lizard provinces but the fearsome dragon gets cursed and crushed. The 2 armies continue to expand, I get monks building temples to increase number of daoine I can recruit, and recruit maximum daoines every turn.

I usually get a 2nd and perhaps 3rd castle built in a forest province around the 10th-15th turns, and focus on knights in that castle, using leftover resources on longbows. I also recruit another Sidhe Lord and a Tuatha; these sit around casting Auspex and Haruspex every turn.

Right around turns 15-20 I generally start to come under at least 1 serious attack though, and never seem to have quite enough army to hold them off, especially Vanheim which always seems to have a huge army.

So am I putting too much into research initially, or not sending dragon out soon enough, or not using gems wisely? Usually I would not have spent so much on PD right away, but whenever I see Caelum I always drop 12 in every province, less seems to lose too frequently and saving a couple turns lost income and the irritation of having to backtrack behind my lines seems worth the cost. Any advice appreciated, thanks!