odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )

[Stormbinder]

Originally posted by Graeme Dice:

quote:

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Originally posted by Edi:
The three event limitation is per province. I've had as many as a dozen events happening all at once, but no more than three per province.

If yo have a dozen events happening at once, then you must have either a large number of doom horrors, or a large number of ladies of fortune and jade emperors.

Originally posted by Kristoffer O:
Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects.

Luck/Order scales after 2.06 Patch

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It is possible. It collarates with my example of pushing bad luck into enemy dominion, since it will be *your* bad luck who will doom your neigbor, even if he have luck 3, assuming you push your dominion over the border.

However it is not totally clear what "scales of the province" means. Let's say you have dominion scale luck -3, that would give you very bad events, but in that particular province you have positive dominion and luck 0. The dev's statement seem to suggest that the worst events assosiated with very bad luck will pass over province, since it has luck 0 scale despite having luck -3 in your capital. If this correct, than the events will be determine on province by province base by the local luck, but with home capital having overal influence over all provinces with your positive dominion.


That brings an interesting thought. There is a fairy useless spell, that along with its main effect, set Dominion luck to -3. It's pretty cheap, but nobody ever cast it in MP, since its effects are too weak. However, if what Kristoffer said is correct (he implyed that he was not sure), than it can be a great spell that nobody uses because they don't undestand the mechanic of luck. If the capital's indeed affects the ratio of random events for the whole dominion, that you can screw some Empire royally for many turns, if somebody have for example luck 3 and you change it to luck -3. Instead of a typical 3 or more good events your enemy will suffer a lot of bad events for several turns to come, until his dominion will restore his luck. Than you can "rinse, repeat".

It's like you are puting a Curse on entire enemy nation.

I like it. It would be good if somebody would confirm it. It would be pretty simple to test it, if you choose luck 3 nation to experiment with.

[ July 30, 2004, 19:13: Message edited by: Stormbinder ]

[Agrajag]

As far as I understand you have a chance of (hypotheticaly speaking) 5% of an event happening in each one of your provinces.
Those 5% are then modified by the scales in action in the province (more for turmoil etc.).
After it has been decided if you recieve an event or not and in case you are, the luck scales in that province are then consulted to see wether you get a good or bad event.
So to have a high chance of a good event happening in a certain province, the scales in that province have to be on the side of luck (preferably +3).
Enemy dominions can mess your luck up in certain provinces, so to get the full effect of the +3 luck you are going to have to have your dominion in your provinces.
Hope that makes sense and wasn't just stating the obvious.

[Stormbinder]

Originally posted by Agrajag:
As far as I understand you have a chance of (hypotheticaly speaking) 5% of an event happening in each one of your provinces.
Those 5% are then modified by the scales in action in the province (more for turmoil etc.).
After it has been decided if you recieve an event or not and in case you are, the luck scales in that province are then consulted to see wether you get a good or bad event.
So to have a high chance of a good event happening in a certain province, the scales in that province have to be on the side of luck (preferably +3).
Enemy dominions can mess your luck up in certain provinces, so to get the full effect of the +3 luck you are going to have to have your dominion in your provinces.
Hope that makes sense and wasn't just stating the obvious.

That's not what KristofferO said Agrajag, in the link that Graeme have posted.

[Agrajag]

Originally posted by Stormbinder:

quote:

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Originally posted by Agrajag:
As far as I understand you have a chance of (hypotheticaly speaking) 5% of an event happening in each one of your provinces.
Those 5% are then modified by the scales in action in the province (more for turmoil etc.).
After it has been decided if you recieve an event or not and in case you are, the luck scales in that province are then consulted to see wether you get a good or bad event.
So to have a high chance of a good event happening in a certain province, the scales in that province have to be on the side of luck (preferably +3).
Enemy dominions can mess your luck up in certain provinces, so to get the full effect of the +3 luck you are going to have to have your dominion in your provinces.
Hope that makes sense and wasn't just stating the obvious.

That's not what KristofferO said Agrajag, in the link that Graeme have posted.

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So according to him, the chance of an event occouring are only modifed by the capitol, the chance of it being a good or bad even is influenced by the local luck scale of the province.
So if someone has a high order dominion, bad luck won't be too bad, but if he has turmoil+3 and luck+3 he is totaly screwed in any province of his that hasnt dominioned up to luck+3 (especially if that province has been dominioned/spelled to misfortune+3).

[Sheap]

I don't read the posting in Graeme's link the same as everyone else I guess. This is the original posting that convinced me only home province matters at all.

Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects.

(It's on page 5)

This seems very clear and straightforward to me. Did he make a mistake in this statement? The only thing province scales would seem to do is restrict whether nor not the extreme events (i.e. barbarian hordes, caspar of the cave) are allowed there or not. Since most events both good and bad are allowed with any scales, this wouldn't have a huge effect.

[Boron]

new question :
a norna e.g. prevents bad events with 15% probability .
do they simply stack so 7 nornas are enough to prevent every bad event or 15% cancel chance for each norna , but no stackup ?
then for 7 nornals the chance to prevent a bad event should be ~68% .
while ulms fortune tellers have only 5% .
so even 15 fortune tellers in capitol would only prevent ~54% of bad events .

[Stormbinder]

Originally posted by Agrajag:
So according to him, the chance of an event occouring are only modifed by the capitol, the chance of it being a good or bad even is influenced by the local luck scale of the province.

No, actually it is other way around. KristofferO said that random event being good or bad is determined by the luck scale in the capital, *than* restricted by the local scales.

So if someone has a high order dominion, bad luck won't be too bad, but if he has turmoil+3 and luck+3 he is totaly screwed in any province of his that hasnt dominioned up to luck+3 (especially if that province has been dominioned/spelled to misfortune+3).

Not really. He is not screwed since standart luck zero give you 50/50 chance of good or bad events. And turmoil just affects the chance of the event happening, not the ratio between god or bad. Also, regardless of your order/turmoil scale, the max number of random events per turn is still limited to 3, baring special cases like Doom Horrors, etc. And that limit will be reached relatively quickly as you empire grow.

[Stormbinder]

Originally posted by Sheap:
I don't read the posting in Graeme's link the same as everyone else I guess. This is the original posting that convinced me only home province matters at all.

quote:

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Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects.

(It's on page 5)

This seems very clear and straightforward to me. Did he make a mistake in this statement? The only thing province scales would seem to do is restrict whether nor not the extreme events (i.e. barbarian hordes, caspar of the cave) are allowed there or not. Since most events both good and bad are allowed with any scales, this wouldn't have a huge effect.

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Generaly I agree, although local scales do effect events to significant degree, because a lot of events are scales related (not only luck scales but all scales). But the main point about home capital's luck seem to be pretty straight forward, unless KrissO is mistaken.

That's why I suggested that casting bad luck spell on somebody's capital could screw his entire empire for several turns, if this information is correct.

[Agrajag]

"Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects."
So if I have Luck+3 in my home province I will have the extra event % that luck brings and will have a higher chance of good events happening.
BUT if a certain province has a luck of -3 then the good event generated for it by the home province might negate that event leaving you with no event at all.
And Im guessing its the same thing for Turmoil/Order.
Its still hard to understand exactly what he meant...
We need a new post clearing things up... :/

[Stormbinder]

Originally posted by Agrajag:
"Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects."
So if I have Luck+3 in my home province I will have the extra event % that luck brings and will have a higher chance of good events happening.
BUT if a certain province has a luck of -3 then the good event generated for it by the home province might negate that event leaving you with no event at all.
And Im guessing its the same thing for Turmoil/Order.
Its still hard to understand exactly what he meant...
We need a new post clearing things up... :/

No, that's not how I think it works. I don't have the source code of Dom2, but I could try to make a good quess from programer's perspective based upon available information and previous developers Posts. Obviously all events in the dom2's Events datebase have the flag of being "good" or "bad". The home province's (meaning capital) Luck determines what type of event it will be, as Kris said in his post. The local scales(*all* scales) restrict what type of possible events that can happen in this particular province, based upon the number of scales (and also other parameters, such as province type). But it does not influence the ratio between the chance of good or bad events happening in this particualr province, which is constant for all provinces with your positive dominion and is determined by your capital's Luck scale.


Again, I am not Illwinter's programer and I don't have the source code in front of me, but it seem to be quite likely scenario to me, both from Kris's statement, from general logic perspective and based upon previous developers explanations how other similar semi-random algorithms work in Dominion2, such as random magic sites placement/searching algorithm.

Anyway, it would be great is somebody would run the test with Luck 3 nation and Baneful Star spell, that I sugested earlier. That would clear this matter once and for all.


Regards,
Stormbinder

[ July 30, 2004, 20:42: Message edited by: Stormbinder ]