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Size of attacking fleet vs vessel size. In the first case, more ships invariably prevail regardless of tech differences of the smaller opponents.
If two fleets have equal tech, the larger one will usually win in strategic combat. There are always exceptions; you still have at least a 1% chance to hit and a 1% chance to miss, and enough hits/misses against the odds
could happen to alter a battle. In tactical combat against the AI, anything can happen (see SJ's war story about a single dreadnought defeating nine opponents, although with major damage).
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As your tech level/ship size progresses, economics ends up effectively capping the number and size of your fleet.
There is a limit to the number of ships you can support, but this can be greatly stretched. Some ways include:
1) Organic race--ships use more organics and less mineral resources than usual. Since the shortage tends to be in minerals, you can keep more ships fielded at once.
2) Maintenance reduction race characteristic--points spent here directly affect the maintenance cost of your ships.
3) Crystalline race--this trait has a facility which reduces maintenance on all ships in a system.
4) Units/Carriers--units are maintenance-free, and are excellent for warp point defense, where they get to fire first before enemy PD can take them out. Fighters, used en masse or alongside heavy missile fire, can overwhelm PD and extend the firepower of your fleet.
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I tend to find tho that the AI has no such limitations. I was forced to shut warp points to avoid get swarmed by 30-40-50 ship BC fleets.
Did you set the AI to receive a bonus? That can multiply their available resources by up to 5x. Also, many AIs (the TDM races in particular, along with several other excellent AIs) are much more intelligent and aggressive in their ship building and fleet usage.
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At this point, I am struggling to build up my resources to maintain a necessary fleet strength and go back on the offensive.
See above for maintenance reduction. Also, mothball any ships you don't need for defense or construction. Don't worry about infrastructure facilities; concentrate on mineral miners and ship yards.
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One big MOO2 tactic was to build a large fleet of small vessels (FFG's, DD's, CL's) and swarm the opponents. The AI has used this with some success.
This can be a devastating technique, especially against an opponent with no/low levels of Mx tracking. It doesn't matter if one of his ships can blow one of yours out of the water with a single shot if he can't target more than one ship per turn. Meanwhile, you can fire to your heart's content. If an opponent uses this tactic against you, multiplex tracking is a must to research (Combat Support).
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Also is it me or are fighters mostly ineffective (given the eefectiveness of PD)?
There has been much discussion as to whether PD is too strong. I believe the Proportions mod by PvK and Pirates&Nomads by SuicideJunkie have made changes to help this. One fix might be to lower the 70% to-hit bonus of PD. You could also increase the size (one PD=20kt; one CSM=50kt) or fire rate of PD, or make separate forms of PD which can only target missiles
or fighters.
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Any comments & pointers would be most appreciated.
Hope this helps.