What if...

Rodwonder · #1 February 7th, 2016, 08:16 AM

Here is some fodder for what if battles or campaigns. Hopefully this will stay as wargames... http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/03/...AEditors+Picks

Double_Deuce · #2 February 7th, 2016, 09:20 AM

There's been a lot of talk of wargaming a Russia vs Sweden conflict lately since they are not part of NATO and would not invoke the Article 5 commitment. I know they work closely with NATO but iirc are not covered under the treaty itself.

Oche · #3 February 7th, 2016, 10:49 AM

Stock scenarios#149, 150, 173, 174 and 175 by Ulf Lundstrom are cold war what if scenarios involving Soviet Union vs Sweden, although set 25 years before than the would be scenarios of timeline suggested by op, those prove that they can be very well designed if attention to detail is kept in mind as always with scenario design

jivemi · #4 February 7th, 2016, 11:39 PM

It was rather sobering to read that Germany now has only 250 serviceable MBTs and that the US has only 2 combat brigades in Europe. Seems like Russia could overrun the Baltics or Ukraine anytime it chooses.

RecruitMonty · #5 February 10th, 2016, 08:18 PM

Hmm... . As much as I enjoy yesterday's left-overs, I think re-heating the Cold War - something the liberal media etc have tried to do since 2012 or thereabouts - is a bit desperate to say the least.

If the Russians are smart - and I do believe their leaders are - they will leave the West - especially Western Europe - to its own devices - even if provoked.

We've screwed ourselves over enough - without any help from abroad - and it doesn't look like we'll be providing any leadership in the short term to deal with the problems we are facing in anything like "good time".

Hell, it is far more likely that large swathes of Europe will descend into a "Yugoslav" scenario long before the first Russian tanks start rolling westwards.

Suhiir · #6 February 11th, 2016, 03:31 AM

I don't think ethnic tensions in most of Europe are near as high as they were in Yugoslavia. And keep in mind what happened between Quebec and the rest of Canada. There will ALWAYS be a few hotheads but most people don't think the situation is bad enough to start shooting at each other about.

IronDuke99 · #7 February 11th, 2016, 09:10 AM

The EU is in a very weak position these days: The Euro zone is a total disaster and immigration policy (re economic migrants, rather than genuine refugees) a total mess up. Border policy a total mess. UK certainly should leave it, many other nations -including even France- now see its huge draw backs.

So sure EU might well break up (and not before time if you ask me).

The 'new cold war' is merely traditional Russian policy coming back again. I am not at all sure it is vital to western Europe to defend the Baltic States, even if -a very big if indeed- it is possible.

Meantime, aside from warfare resulting from who has the best invisible friend in the sky (sigh, in the 21st Century) China remains the real threat to the West, very heavily involved in Africa, rich, autocratic, expansionist, and building up her Navy with Aircraft Carriers, etc.

If European nations can defend their borders against a vast mass of mostly purely economic migrants, China, for my money remains the longer term and more serious threat...

RecruitMonty · #8 February 11th, 2016, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

If European nations can defend their borders against a vast mass of mostly purely economic migrants, China, for my money remains the longer term and more serious threat...

Big if!

RecruitMonty · #9 February 11th, 2016, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suhiir

I don't think ethnic tensions in most of Europe are near as high as they were in Yugoslavia. And keep in mind what happened between Quebec and the rest of Canada. There will ALWAYS be a few hotheads but most people don't think the situation is bad enough to start shooting at each other about.

Didn't take too long with Yugoslavia either. It kicked off in the eighties after Tito died and was an all out shooting war by 1991. Some will say foreign powers had something to do with the rapidity of it. That is debateable. What makes anyone think that a fractured Europe would be immune from external manipulation? The EU is already hardly immune.

Believe me, Europe will not need ten years. The cracks are already visible.

The East does not agree with the West about how to deal with Europe's problems.

The North does not agree with the South.

No one is being fiscally responsible anymore - not even Germany.

All the other problems will become more apparent as time goes by and because there simply cannot be enough GDP to go around to pay for the 24hour / 365 day a year distractions that will be necessary to keep people ticking over, at some point something will give.

People will then do what they always do when this happens.

IronDuke99 · #10 February 11th, 2016, 09:50 PM

While I agree that one cannot build a navy overnight( my son is joining the RN) China has in fact been building up her navy for some time now.
China is certainly a regional threat today to Japan, Australia and India for example and of course the US and even UK still have treaty obligations in that part of the world.

Also, as I said China is also very heavily involved in Africa, including helping to prop up such nasty leaders as Mugabe in Zimbabwe...