[thejeff]

That makes no sense at all. The AI, in this context, refers to AI played nations. It's true that independents and special monsters are implemented as nations, but that's pretty much just for the purpose of figuring out who fights who. They don't recruit troops, cast spells or attack other provinces.

Random events do happen to unconnected provinces, but that has nothing to do with whether AI nations will attack them. (Exception, some nations unlock random events that provinces with national troops. LA Ermor cultist attack comes to mind.)