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And I am mildly affronted at the fact that you call this 'math geeky'. This is what I'll be doing for a living soon
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Pretty much same here. But for me geeky is not equall to bad

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Quote:
May I ask how you found that new distribution, Evilhomer?
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0 - 0.000 trivial, we know we have atleast 1 site
1 - 0.216 we have 3 remaining "maybes", chance of having all as negatives are (6/10)*(6/10)*(6/10).
2 - 0.432 Chance of having exactly one additional site 3*(4/10)*(6/10)*(6/10)
and so forth....
Edit: I might have very well have misunderstood how sites are distributed to be honest....
As I understand it 4 checks are made with some percentage chance and for each "positive" a site is added, if i am wrong about this much does fall

(though I am still pretty sure the binomical distribution changes if 1 earth site is given or not)