[thejeff]

That would be nice, though unlikely to happen. You could tweak the values and calculate the exact chances of a site in a particular path. (And then the chances of VoT or AR if some paths have already been searched?) If I understand the Bayes argument correctly, the chances go up if you've already searched other paths and found nothing, so add that in.

I'm still going to override it to not search provinces I think are vulnerable. And I'm still going to try to search everything I expect to hold.

So I really see this as fiddling with the details of something that remains basically broken. The important part is letting it search provinces with 2 sites and not searching capitals. My next priority would be searching paths that have been partially searched. Order comes a long way after that.