[Marcello]

"I'm not sure about the Gulf War, since Iraq would have remained a sworn enemy led by bad ole Hussein and his famously rational decisions"

The Gulf War was largely a byproduct of the Iran Iraq war; Saddam ended the war with the most powerful army in the area and a bottomless pool of red ink. Seizing an oil rich emirate they had territorial claims on seemed a decent way out of the conudrum. Take away this and add a powerful neighbor armed to the teeth and the whole thing suddenly becomes a lot less attractive.