winMBT low percentile hits
 

I noticed that in the DOS version of MBT very low percentile shots (under 20%) seemed to have a very high hit average, whereas 55% shots don't. This also seems to be occurring in winMBT too.

Is this correct or is it a coding error; and if so can it be fixed?

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Mmmmhhh in a game that I just finished I received lot of AA fire with 1-3% of hitting probability, and believe it or not, not a single airplane was damaged!


In another game, enemy ATGM infantry with 99% of hitting probability against my APCs and tanks have always hit, reducing my forces to an horde of crews running like hell! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

I have noticed this also!
Please fix it...

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Glad I am not the only one, this feature of the game really annoys me.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

I haven't noticed that. I find the hits in a game seem to even out the % of hit/miss.

OF course I have had the battle when I had a Cav tank plt fire at a on coming T-62 12 times and miss all of those shots. also had a hit at 4000 meters also.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

I thought that I had once noticed this, but concluded it was a psychological thing. I think we are more likely to remember a 55% miss than a hit, as well as remembering a 20% hit more than a miss, because those things go against our expectations.

I guess the only way to double check is to get a mechanical counter and do an experiment.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

I also see most 40-50% chances as a near auto-hit. I cant understand how 5 out of 6 shots that supposedly have a 40-ish percent chance to hit are scoring.

I see this quite consistantly too. Like the rest of you, I figured it was just me too. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Noticed the same thing :40-55% chance hits one time ou of 4, whereas 15-20% ones hit half the time. Weird ...

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

I have noticed that T-62 tanks with a %1-3 chance to hit are taking my drones out at 1200+ meters regularly. Last battle I played I lost 8 drones to T-62s within 10 or less hexes of entering play.

This accurcy of the tank MGs has kept me from usinging any AC but drones.

Pavel

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

So is there anyway for the gamers to fix this problem in a later release?

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Is Kevin really offering to do a statistical analysis for us?

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

You can do one yourself, should be no big deal, only some work...

Create a test unit with lotsa shots, quite uneffective weapon, note the accuracy value, unit viz, stabilisator, .
Create a map on which you put several of these with standardized M/E ratings, face them with many heavily-armored unarmed target units, which you place at different ranges.

Then have a bout of firing and note for each shot the given PK and if it hit or not.

When you have the data, sort by probability and look at what you get. Again and again http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif

Yeah, that is tiresome, and I guess you can get a automated way to do it...

Anyway I don't think you will come up with anything surprising, but if you have 50 hours to spend... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Maybe someday. If I get really really bored.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

In order to avoid you some boring and long experiments, I'll give some useful informations:
1) Given percentiles are main weapon ones -> try to kill a drone with T-62 main gun, 1-3% seems like elite gunner in your T-62, with machingun it's pretty better....
2)The given percentile depends only on units. Explanation: take two M1A1 one with a 20 experience the other with 120. at the same distance of each deploy a T-62. Given percentile should be the same... Try the fire and you will see. Experience is only tested after you decided to fire at the unit, not before...
if that's true, it will explain everything, but it may have changed between SPMBT 3.01 and WinMBT...

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Starmyth,

noooooooo. sorry I don't have the time for that. As usual my friends loktarr and plasmakrab seem to be 'over engineering' a test. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...ies/tongue.gif You don't need to set up special scenarios.

Set up an excel sheet, or a scratch piece of paper. Set up 100 columns and then divide each of those into a fired / hit column (total of 200.) The next time you play SP, keep track of the estimated % and place a tick mark mark in the correct fired column. If it hits, put a mark in the hit column. After 100 fired ticks, you ought to have an idea if SP is estimating coreect hit %'s.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

how about an "regular" egyptian squad droppin israeli paras at 400m b/c they moved 1 hex(50 m)!!!!!!
chickens with no heads i guess. movement penalty is too harsh and unrealistic. small arms fire= a bunch of snipers. too much emphasis on "kills" and not enough on supression.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Sometimes I REALLY wonder if I'm playing the same game as some of you people. The "movement penalty" is NOT "too harsh" and small arms fire does not equal "a bunch of snipers". If you move against an enemy force that is unsurpressed expect to take casualties if you are moving in the open in the desert. Surpression IS the key and if you don't do it expect casualties when moving in the open even if it is only one hex and your opponent is a ""regular" egyptian squad" What....?? a "regular" egyptian squad isn't supposed to be able to hit Isreali paras?

Don

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

imho, at 400m in battlefield conditions. pretty tough. if a squad moves 1 hex and is truly tactical(tactical...using cover, keeping low...crawling???) at 400m even in open desert i find it hard to believe that at this distance anyone except a sniper could consistantly score kills(supression yes)
400m...4 football fields!!!long way!

btw...not to nitpick game. i absolutly love it. thanks for everything yall have done. truly remarkable.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Uuuooh ... hitting someone ducking along in 400m with an AK-47 ?!
Do they use original Sowjet guns with scopes and match ammo?

"Universally accepted" effective range of the AK-47 is 300m !
( US Army Field Manual 100-2-3 - The Soviet Army; Troops Organisation and Equipment published in June 1991.)

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Sorry Kevin, I wasn't meaning that you were doing it, I don't even knkow where Starmyth found the info, so Iwasn't sure you wouldn't either...

Either case I was just indicating that he could do it himself, same way as you explained, only with better standardisation... Not necessarily useful though.

But if you want to have statistically useful results, you ought to allow for many shots for each PK %. One each won't do.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Maybe your Israelis were not hitten by the only AK-47, there are also support weapons in a squad...
And are PKM and other light machinguns firing at 300m only?
Poor Egyptians, if they don't have any support weapon in their squads... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

are you guys saying it is normal for ANY infantry squad(not just poor egypitans..blah..blah..) to score kills on tacticly moving infantry(small arms, 50m hex,9-10 men) at 300-400 meters???
machine gun,ak,m16,rpg.. whatever the hell weapon they choose. is that right?if that is the case fine with me. that is very impressive. effective range means what? supression,kills?so if im in a squad, creeping(cover) down a road some unsupressed 65 exp. squad can drop two men at 300-400m with a pk b/c i can't see him???????!!!!!!!i did not realize how accurate modern weapons were. i am not in the military and don't have battlefield exp so this is a definate learning cruve for me. thanks.
chuck

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

That's not a problem of modern weapon or not, BTW during WW2, german MG-42 could fire at an aim at 800m (reported from a guy that was on eastern front)...

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Given a situation where an infantry squad fires at another infantry squad 400 meters away with everything they've got (assault rifles as well as MGs), then I see nothing spectacular in them getting one or two kills. You certainly can't snipe with an AK to 400 meters, but if you get enough bullets in the area, some of them are bound to hit your target.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Exactly. As well this is NOT something that happens all the time in the game OR in reality and those 2 "kills" are not "kills" they are casualties and "Casualties" means a man is removed from the fighting and that can cover anything from and outright kill to a case of "battle fatigue"

One "problem" we have always had is the number generator sometimes, in certain conditions, generates too many high or low end results in a row just as if you were playing an old board game with dice and seem to be cursed or charmed by rolling snake eyes or box cars more than is "normal" it's one of the quirks of the game and it's also one of the things that allows the game to simulate the fact that in combat, you can do everything right and by the book but if the other guys gets lucky all the training in the world won't help you and sometimes even Egyptian conscripts can score effectively against high trained Israeli Paras. S**t Happens

Don

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

thanks to all for helpful comments. i guess i also need to remember that each turn(pulse) is 3-5 min. a lot of lead can fly in that time frame. just curious. i've read that the ai performs best with a batillion size force when attacking. is that correct? thanks again.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Effective range for the C7 (M16 if you are American) is maximum 300 meters with the scope. Optimal range is 200 meters. Effective fire is "FIRE THAT WILL CAUSE CASUALTIES IF APPROPRIATE ACTION IS NOT TAKEN".

Since the AK is a looser built weapon and thus not as accurate, I would say it's maximum effective range is 200 meters, optimal 100 meters.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

here is another example: My T72 fires at another T72, my shot % is 69% and I miss. He returns fire (having to traverse etc) and gets a 16% chance to hit...AND KILLS ME.

All I can do is let out a big sigh. So can this be fixed or what?

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Red light syndrom, anyone?

You have to understand that all these percentile figures are, is a probability. If you have 76% PK, you still have one chance in 4 to miss it. If the other guy has 16% PK, he still has one chance in 7 to hit. And that's it.
Additionally the result of a first "dice roll" has no influence on the following, apart from the weapons on one unit going more accurate with every shot on the same target. Not because you have been unlucky once will the game hand you better dice out!
The game probability engine can be unfair, well, too bad, nature can as well!
By the way, I for one consider myself quite lucky with this probability engine. I am no rabid hex gamer, and maybe I have to remind some that many of the modern "wider-public" computer strategy games don't have one...

There is nothing to be fixed in this case, except maybe for the very human habit of always seeing the odds against oneself and not accepting the effects of random influences as, well, random... You see, destiny against you and so on...

As Don said above, the game's dice roller sometimes tends to stick in rows, so you can be VERY lucky or unlucky for some amount of time going. Well, as they say, [censored] happens!

Now if your 99% PK missiles keep overshooting again and again, that is where you have a problem.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

MG-42 was also a looser built weapon and I never heard allied veterans saying it was not accurate...
In fact from some experiments (serious ones, I mean), the AK-47 is more accurate at great ranges because of the weight of the bullet (7,62mm), but it's not the same for the AK-74, as it is a 5,45mm bullet...

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

What is the actual, precise formula for gun accuracy?

All rifles tend to have an accuracy of 1, and when you shift to MGs or sniper rifles it bounces up to 20+...

I understand the factors like fast response, no time to aim, guys manning several weapons at once etc., but shouldn't some rifles be pulled up a bit so the quality difference can really be on accuracy, without having to tweak the range?

Or has this theme already been discussed and buried? I should think it has... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Actually, the MG-42 used heavy, speedy 7,92x57mm ammo ("8x57IS") with very flat trajectory (755-800 m/s, 3.600 - 5.000 J, effective range 800m with bipod, 3000-3500m on mounting).

The AK-47 uses slow 7,62x39mm bullet (710m/s, 2,010 J, effective range 300m).

Ak-74 uses high-velocity lightweight 5.45x39mm bullet (velocity: ~900 m/s, energy: ~1,350 J, effective range of around 400m because of flatter trajectory, the sights are zeroed for 300m)

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

I didn't read that for the AKs, but you seem to got really precise informations so, it must be true...

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

ammo performance
Those you can easily look up - Google will tell you a bunch of reliable sites which come up with congruent info.

effective range
A target is in effective range, if you can actually expect the weapon to have effect reliably (not random hits only).

For the AK-47 it's just the case that @400m you'll have to point it a little bit much "at the sky" rather than at the target, and the slow bullet is prone to wind drift etc. or to miss just because the target moved away. So you simply can't hit a target reliably at that range. Therefore it is generally attributed with an effective range of 300m.

The AK-74 is attributed with an effective range of 400m because of the faster bullet. It is also said that the small projectile has low stopping power, as it seems to simply go right through without breaking up (as the soft-core fullme tal jacket NATO 5,56 from M16 does). This would result in a lower HEkill factor, gamewise !?

The MG-43 @ 3000m is a little bit different, as this surely isn't aimed, but plugging area fire. Using a heavy tripod, the MG is "converted" into a HMG. Traverse in every direction can be limited seperatly, therefore a "kill zone" can be set up beforehand and later "sprayed" with bullets.
Direct fire using the tripod and attached scope is possible up to 1600m or something, IIRC from the time I had to fiddle around with it's successor MG-3 http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Sorry, but I disagree with you on this one. I am convinced that it is messed up coding in the game from the DOS version and it still exists in winMBT. Here is another lovely prime example that just happened about 5 minutes ago:

BMP 1 that has not moved in 4 turns fire at an immobilized LUCHS. Main gun 33%, MISSED. Missile 34% chance MISSED. MG 45% MISSED (why such low %, especially with the missile?). LUCHS returns fire 25% KILLS (1 shot 1 kill). Move in a ZSU 23-4 to take him out; 34% chance MISSED, LUCHS returns fire 24% KILLS (2 shots, 2 kills). Move in another ZSU 23-4 SAME RESULTS (3 shots, 3 kills). Then move another BMP down a road and come across a partial (3 men routed) sqd. BMP stops from 100 yards and opens fire, NO EFFECT. Routed sqd (22% chance) turn into supermen and kill the BMP. Move up a T62 AND THE SAME RESULTS! So in one turn I lost 6 vehicles all to 1 shot 1 kill with no % above 25% (explain that?). I was so frustrated and afraid to move that I didn't even finish my turn, I just ended it and sent it back to my opponent.

In my opinion this is a real flaw in the MBT series, and not matter how you explain it, it just doesn't make sense.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

@Arralen:

Yep, true. Our Sa. vz. 58 rifle, also using 7.62x39mm ammo, has sights marked up to 800 meters, but the maximal effective range is considered 400meters at best.


@Weasel:

In such situations I tell to myself "sh1t happens"... I was also frustrated in an hotseat game where enemy BMP-2's were massacring my ATGM teams with 3% kills, but I have also seen this on my side.

Btw Ias for the infantry casaulties I tend to play with inf toughness set for 200 points each side.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

You know depending on the design of the random number generator it might be reasonable to save and close the game re-open and continue play when you see a string of annoyingly low probability hits. For some of the possible design methods for the random number generator this will reinitialize randomSeed() and give you a whole set of pseudorandom numbers. Of course the random number generator might be designed in such a way that it would take a full restart of the computer to reinitialize randomSeed() or it may never be possible to reinitialize randomSeed().

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

I am doing this as it seems like a good idea. I ran a test against the computer AI and what I noticed is that the hits are realistic when playing the AI; 25% misses 75% of the time etc. In a PBEM game I have only been able to log 17 shots so far, but this is what I have:
4% 1H (HIT)
8% 1H
22% 1H
24% 3H
25% 3H
30% 2H
31% 1M (MISS)
33% 1M
34% 1H
35% 1H
53% 1H

Not too many misses after 17 shots is there? I will keep updating this. For this experiment I am only counting main guns, missiles, and a/c shots.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Heh heh if you want to watch the computer "get stuck" on low to hit numbers play the second campaigne where you have to make a river crossing and kill tons of tanks on the the other side after you have over come the "buried tanks" on the shore line and all the mines. I have played this one twice and every time I play the AI gets consistant hits and kills at anywhere from 3% to not more than 30% chance to hit. It ALWAYS gets low to hit kills on "key" equipment LOL this has been the rap of Steel Panthers since it first came out 10 years ago and not much has changed. Air Power is also poorly done "friendly fire" is the rule NOT the exception in this game (unless of course the AI is using it then it seems to behave correctly). I have had friendly aircraft divert 15 hexes to hit my own troops.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Then you really do not have a clue how to play this game. I suspect the AI beats you a lot. It's more than obvious from the posts you've been making. I have seen this complaint before and surprise, surprise when I call in an airstike it hit's the target I aim at because I target it correctly. Use the HQ or a FO, don't bring the strike in over terrain that obscures the target on the aircrafts run in and DO NOT target the aircrafts path through smoke or through enemy AA or SAMS as that throws off the aim as well. I almost NEVER get a blue on blue targeting airstrikes and anyone who does simple isn'ts doing it correctly. As for your allegation that the AI gets higher to hit % than the human play it is, to be blunt, total crap. There it N*O*T* *H* I* N* G in the code that gives the AI ANY kind of advantage over the human player like that.

You don't like the game and it seems you've had a "problem" with SP since it was released and you don't seem to enjoy any kind of challenging scenario or campaign so I really wonder why you bother

Don

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Big Jim The Air Force just hates you and that is why you get bombed http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif

Like Don said, you just need to target correctly and follow the advice he gave you. Have found that out several years ago.

Forget once recently and go bombed by a B-52 and that hurt http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/shock.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Hey Don, what do you mean by "I almost NEVER get a blue on blue targeting airstrikes and anyone who does simple isn'ts doing it correctly"

By "blue on blue" you mean aircraft hitting targets from the same team or what?

I really don�t understand what BigJim means, I�ve been playing this game for nearly 3 months now since I begin with the dos V (I�m such a rookie) and I use air support a lot and so far I haven�t experience friendly aircraft fire.

By the way, I got my CD 3 days ago and everything is running correctly down here..great game���, it is all I play. Congratulations.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Blue on blue is synonymous of friendly fire. In this case it is intended when your aircraft come in and strafe and bomb your own units.

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

Yes, Blue on Blue is a Friendly Fire and I got it in my long time SP playing just VERY few times. I take care after my first amicide incident when back in good old SP1 a Thunderbolt hit Sherman with 5inch rockets. The Sherman survived but since that time I take care.

OTOH I have seen many friendly fire incident on AI side, recenty in a large battle Czechoslovakia-Egypt in 1986 IIRC, Egypt got 8 F-16's, 3 of them have attacked one T-72 (and only suppressed it), 2 others have attacked other T-72 (and suppressed it), one attacked Egyptian T-62 (and missed), other two went massacring Egyptian APC's http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/cool.gif

Re: winMBT low percentile hits
 

yup, the AI also does friendly fire, i play against soviets and it seems they have enough troops to waste, since their arty mostly targets portions of own troops hehe.

Results of 200 shots.
 

Ok, I ran a test in winmbt against human opponents counting the number of times a tank's main gun fires and hits/misses, or a missile hits/misses. Here is what I got after 200 shots, H=hit, M=miss

3% 1H
4% 1H 1M
5% 2M
7% 1M
8% 1H 1M
9% 2M
11% 1M
12% 1H 2M
14% 3H 4M
15% 1M
16% 3H 4M
17% 2H 1M
18% 3M
19% 2M
20% 2H 3M
21% 4H 1M
22% 2H 2M
23% 2H 4M
24% 5H 3M
25% 5H 3M
26% 2H 4M
27% 1H 4M
28% 3M
29% 3H 2M
30% 2H 6M
31% 1H 2M
32% 2H 1M
33% 6M
34% 1H 4M
35% 1H 1M
36% 1H 2M
37% 1M
38% 1M
40% 3H
41% 1H 3M
42% 4H 3M
43% 3M
44% 2H 1M
45% 2M
47% 2H 1M
48% 1M
49% 1H
50% 2M
51% 1H 2M
52% 1H
53% 1H 1M
54% 2H
55% 2M
56% 1M
57% 1H
60% 1H 1M
61% 2M
63% 1H 5M
64% 1M
66% 1H
67% 2H
68% 1H
71% 1H 1M
73% 3H
74% 1H
75% 2H 1M
76% 1H
78% 1H
79% 2H
85% 1H
90% 1H
91% 1H
93% 1H
94% 2H 1M
99% 4H

As you can see from above the majority of % to hit in winMBT are below 50% yet you still have about a 61% to hit. Now I am no scientist and I don't know how much value the above table is, but it seems to me that if you have a low % shot take it as the odds seem pretty good that the round will strike home.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Some quick math based on your table shows that the average hit percentage per shot for those at 20% or lower is 12%.

14 out of 42 shots were hits though giving a 33%.

Are your scores based on the % shown in the 'target' screen or the listed percentages on screen when actually firing?

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

The % are the final % shown when the shot is fired.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

So was this ever looked at? Just wondering as the game continues to kill at incredible low odds (just lost 5 M18s to 25% chances or less from long range). BTW Narwan, I am not sure of your math, but my math of 20% or less shots shows that out of a total of 42 shots fired, 14 hit or 33%, shouldn't this max out a 20%? And if you go to 25% then 32 hit out of 73 shots, or 44%.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

No.
20% is for each hit, not for all your hits added together.