Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

BTW, and to return to the subject, the primary "cheat or not" test would include multiple shots with the same "to-hit" probability. "Sampling" the whole probability range... well it takes some more "advanced" statistics.
I mean, after all, the question is if a "reported" 3% hit probability is statistically 3% also. Right?

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

The initial hit probability displayed in the game you see before you fire is the basic, unmodified chance of a hit. (call it the units WAG ) It is only after a unit fires that the factors such as experience, morale, leadership, weapon accuracy etc etc get factored in.

Then there are always random numbers tossed in. If the game didn't use random numbers to simulate that all things in life and especially combat is not simply 1+1=2 the game would be boring and predictable. Sometimes you do get lucky, sometimes no matter how well prepared you are S**T HAPPENS and that is why those intial to -hit probabilities should be taken as a rough guidelines only.

Also, the to-hit percentage is based in the weapon in slot 1 only so if you have a squad with a rifle in slot one and a Inf AT weapon in slot four and your aiming at a tank you're not getting the Inf AT weapons probability and, as I mentioned above , your not getting the morale, experience etc ( and random ) factors. Those only get calculated once you "pull the trigger"

Don